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Blockworks

The laws of macro investing are being re-written, and investors who fail to adapt to the rapidly changing monetary environment will struggle to keep pace. Felix Jauvin interviews the brightest minds in finance about which asset classes they think will thrive in the financial future that they envision.

Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc
Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance 
Subscribe on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ForwardGuidanceBW
Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx

Forward Guidance

This week, we discuss the Fed’s whiplash on December rate-cut expectations, why markets are being driven more by positioning and volatility than fundamentals, and how AI-led CapEx is masking weakness across the real economy. We also dig into the Beige Book’s warnings on employment and AI-driven layoffs, the political pressure building into 2025, and Mike Green’s viral case that the true cost of living is far higher than official statistics admit. Enjoy! 

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Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ 

Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp 

Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance 

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx 

Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance 

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Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1DZ5AtLuZZxGT5hWw3jq2V-r_9jBgruEE/view?usp=sharing 

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Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal.

https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance 

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(02:49) Rate Cut Odd Whipsaw

(09:48) Grayscale Ad

(10:27) Market Structure & Positioning

(15:14) Debating the AI Race

(23:59) Gameplan for Next Year

(31:31) Grayscale Ad

(32:18) 2026 Cuts & New Fed-Treasury Vision

(38:34) Gold Miners & Trading Commodities

(42:18) Oil & Energy Policy

(46:22) Mike Green & the K-Shaped Economy

(55:17) Final Thoughts

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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

The AI Economy Is Leaving Labor Behind | Weekly Roundup

In this episode, Jordi Visser joins the show to discuss how exponential technologies, shifting demographics, and rising wealth concentration are quietly reshaping the economic landscape in ways traditional macro models can’t capture. He hints at why AI, deflation, and political incentives may matter far more than the usual data releases and how Bitcoin fits into this evolving world. Enjoy!

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Follow Jordi: https://x.com/jvisserlabs 

Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance 

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ 

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx 

Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance 

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Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal.

https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance 

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(05:15) Why Tech is Breaking Old Macro

(12:04) Grayscale Ad

(12:41) How to Think About AI Disruptions

(19:14) Transition From FCF to Debt-Funded

(25:04) .Com Comparisons & Infinite AI Demand

(29:05) The Genesis Mission

(31:10) Grayscale Ad

(31:58) The New Reality of Today’s Markets

(36:47) Deflation vs Inflation Risks

(39:58) Mike Green’s Viral Post

(41:52) Debt Doom Loop & Curing All Diseases

(45:35) Fed Buying Corporate Bonds

(47:25) Bitcoin’s Digital Moat

(54:25) Final Thoughts

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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

AI Is Ushering in an Entirely New Economic Paradigm | Jordi Visser

This week, we discuss NVIDIA’s latest earnings, how shifting credit dynamics could reshape the next phase of the AI boom, what the Fed’s mixed signals really imply for markets, and why global FX moves are sending quiet warnings. We also dig into the surprising forces driving crypto’s recent washout and what they may signal about the road ahead. Enjoy!

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Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ 

Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp 

Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance 

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx 

__

Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/19pmtdWgHFQaXqjjkBeuM89VtGWCLa9qo/view?usp=sharing 

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Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal.

https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance 

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:11) NVDA Earnings & Debt-Fueled Capex

(09:46) Rising Real Rates & Fed Pivot

(12:05) Grayscale Ad

(12:45) Private Credit Warnings

(14:18) Fed in the Dark & Midterm Setup

(19:54) Trump, Bessent & the Fed

(22:20) Hawkish Balance Sheet, Dovish Rates

(27:12) Grayscale Ad

(28:00) Currency Markets & the Carry Trade

(36:48) Bitcoin Quant Corner

(48:22) Geopolitical Implications of Bitcoin and Stablecoins

(53:52) Political Reflections

(58:54) Final Thoughts

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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

AI’s CapEx Frenzy Hits Wall of Fed Hawkishness | Weekly Roundup

In this episode, Capital Flows joins the show to break down how credit growth, falling real rates, and strong cross-border flows fueled the rally from April through summer, and why the Fed’s recent hawkish shift has introduced short-term volatility without meaningfully raising recession risk. We also cover auto-loan stress, the real drivers behind AI-linked equity moves, why geopolitics now shapes liquidity more than the Fed, and more. Enjoy!

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Follow Capital Flows: https://x.com/Globalflows 

Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance 

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ 

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx 

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Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal.

https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance 

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:44) Macro & the Credit Cycle

(05:22) Quantifying Credit Growth

(09:43) Grayscale Ad

(10:24) Impact of Fed’s Hawkish Pivot

(13:41) Recession Odds

(16:38) Auto Loan Stress & Markets vs Economy

(20:28) Market Dispersion & Mag7

(21:22) Mag7: Capex, Financial Engineering, Politics

(25:59) Geopolitics & Cross-Border Flows

(29:28) Grayscale Ad

(30:16) Geopolitics & Cross-Border Flows (Con’t)

(35:08) U.S.-China Trade Constraints

(40:29) Bitcoin & Neutral Assets

(47:21) View on U.S. Equities

(50:57) Final Thoughts

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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

Why Cross-Border Flows Matter More Than Rate Cuts | Capital Flows

This week, we discuss markets wobbling as a pointless government shutdown, delayed data releases, and a hawkish Fed collide with rising credit stress, over-levered AI giants, and widening inequality. Enjoy!

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Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ 

Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp 

Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance 

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx 

__

Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1drPbriNOF50E3o6qdKikbqIYQy4qAuc6/view?usp=sharing 

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Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal.

https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance 

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:31) Shutdown Fallout

(03:59) Hawkish Fed Speeches

(07:52) AI Boom Meets Credit Stress

(12:14) Grayscale Ad

(12:53) AI Boom Meets Credit Stress (Con’t)

(15:51) Warning Signs for Society

(18:58) Hawkish Fed Pivot

(21:32) Tech Bubble & Societal Risks

(28:14) Grayscale Ad

(29:02) Tech Bubble & Societal Risks (Con’t)

(31:04) Policy Missteps & Persistent Inflation

(32:00) Bitcoin, Decentralization & the Future of Money

(33:10) The 2026 Acceleration Playbook

(36:15) Widening Inequality & Generational Divide

(44:11) Centralization, Fragility, & Systemic Risks

(49:24) Final Thoughts

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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

Hawkish Fed, Credit Stress & A K-Shaped America | Weekly Roundup

In this episode, founder of Elm Wealth and co-founder of LTCM Victor Haghani shares lessons from Long-Term Capital Management and contrasts today’s highly levered hedge-fund world with LTCM’s era. He also explains Elm’s Dynamic Index Investing framework and why simplicity and discipline outperform complexity and return-chasing over time. Enjoy!

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Follow Victor: https://x.com/ElmWealth 

Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance 

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ 

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx 

__

Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal.

https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance 

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:04) Insights from Victor’s Storied Career

(09:22) Today’s Market vs the 90s

(16:32) Grayscale Ad

(17:11) Fat Tails & Return Chasing

(28:41) Grayscale Ad

(29:29) Is Discretionary Macro a Fool’s Game?

(37:42) Portfolio Construction & Managing Risk

(44:33) Balancing Risk, Sizing, & Expected Returns

(50:15) What is Good Diversification?

(55:55) Exotic Forms of Diversification

(59:52) Final Thoughts

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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

LTCM Co-Founder on Risk, Leverage & Simplicity | Victor Haghani

This week, we discuss America’s decaying two-tier economy, with Main Street stuck in a silent recession, the Fed trapped between fiscal dominance and market structure rot, and younger generations turning to crypto and speculation as their only escape from a rigged system. Enjoy!

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Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ 

Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp 

Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance 

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx 

__

Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1f1h9636F5tXpNPX6R5KxLnSi6BUpBnFN/view?usp=sharing 

—

Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal.

https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance 

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:05) Fourth Turning Vibes

(04:00) K-Shaped Economy Continues

(07:43) The Market is Broken

(10:57) Government Role in Markets

(11:57) Grayscale Ad

(12:34) Government Role in Markets

(17:47) Market Structure Decay

(21:16) The Death of Retail

(25:21) Generational Release Valve

(28:33) Labor Market vs Automation

(31:28) Grayscale Ad

(32:14) Political Pivot for 2026

(35:18) Government Shutdown Ending?

(37:32) Is Bitcoin Finally Bottoming?

(42:33) Sad Crypto Market Structure

(45:19) Solving Crypto’s Problems

(48:52) Giving Back to the System

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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

America’s Two-Tier Economy Is Breaking Down | Weekly Roundup

In this episode from the Empire podcast, we discuss why Blockworks decided to shut down its news room. We then dive into why 2025 marks the start of a new chapter for the crypto industry, why we're still in a bull market, MegaETH's ICO, recent IPOs, M&A and more. Enjoy!

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Follow Rob: https://x.com/HadickM 

Follow Santi: https://x.com/santiagoroel 

Follow Jason: https://x.com/JasonYanowitz 

Follow Empire: https://x.com/theempirepod 

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance 

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ 

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx 

__

Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal.

https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance 

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:25) Why Blockworks Closed The News Division

(13:32) Grayscale Ad

(14:10) The Next Chapter For Blockworks

(20:06) It’s Still A Bull Market

(24:30) Securitize Plans To Go Public At a $1.25B Valuation

(31:21) Grayscale Ad

(32:44) Western Union Announces USDPT

(50:07) Mastercard Looks To Acquire Zerohash

(56:10) Will Stripe’s Tempo Be a Success?

(1:04:01) The MegaETH ICO

(1:07:29) Content Of The Week

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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

The Next Chapter For Blockworks | Empire

This week, we discuss the Fed meeting, including the end of quantitative tightening and the impact of its balance sheet plans. We also dig into how market structure imbalances and political polarization are reshaping markets, the “financial Hunger Games” of meme-driven trading, rising CapEx from AI megacaps, and the centralization of wealth and power across institutions. Enjoy!

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Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ 

Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp 

Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance 

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx 

Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance 

__

Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1E5w8fmngVNuC4lyl-PCV5qAPewW_lyKm/view?usp=sharing 

—

Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal.

https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance 

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(02:05) Private-Public Market Divergence

(05:08) Fed Meeting Takeaways

(11:17) Grayscale Ad

(11:56) Market Structure Rabbit Hole

(17:26) The Bifurcating Economy

(23:01) Fed Balance Sheet Changes

(27:40) Impact on Markets

(31:27) Grayscale Ad

(32:15) High-Yield Earnings & Market Concentration

(37:51) BigTech Capex Transition

(42:19) The Dystopian AI Future

(45:53) Why is Bitcoin Dumping?

(48:37) The Market is a Casino

(51:28) Realigning Market Incentives

(55:06) Final Thoughts

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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

The Fed's Hawkish Cut & The Financial Hunger Games | Weekly Roundup

In this episode, Lyn Alden joins the show to explain how tariffs “slow the train but don’t stop it,” why the Fed’s rate hikes are disconnected from the true inflation source, and how Fed balance sheet expansion is returning. We also discuss the labor cracks, the hidden redistribution of interest income to wealthy savers, and the next phase of the debasement trade. Enjoy!

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Follow Lyn: https://x.com/LynAldenContact 

Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance 

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ 

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx 

Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance 

__

Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal.

https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance 

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:35) Tariffs & the Fiscal Outlook

(09:13) The Flow of Interest Payments

(12:49) Grayscale Ad

(13:27) Government Shutdown Impact

(15:36) Fiscally-Dominant Economies

(19:51) Measuring Economic Weakness

(22:49) The State of the Labor Market

(26:09) Grayscale Ad

(26:56) Should the Fed Cut?

(30:56) How We Fight Inflation

(34:18) The Fed Balance Sheet

(41:20) Past vs Present Funding Constraints

(45:06) Fed Balance Sheet & Liquidity

(48:43) Active Treasury Issuance

(51:20) The Fed & Bank Liquidity

(53:03) The Debasement Trade

(57:54) Final Thoughts

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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

Deficits Are Forcing the Fed Back Into Expansion | Lyn Alden

On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Jack Farley is joined by Kris Sidial, Co-CIO of the Ambrus Group, a volatility arbitrage focused firm founded in 2020. After noticing how the micro structure of markets had changed due to passive investing, buy side flows, primary dealer hedging post 2008 & ever increasing amounts of QE by the Fed, Kris founded Ambrus Group to take advantage of periods of increased volatility.

Kris takes us all the back to March 2020, discussing the market mechanics which led to such a rapid sell-off. Now in 2022, as markets face increasingly uncertain headlines & the Fed begins tightening, Kris gives his outlook for 2022, sharing his key indicators to look out for, to avoid your portfolio being hit by volmageddon 2.0.
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Follow Follow Kris Sidial: @Ksidiii
Follow Jack Farley: @JackFarley96
Follow Blockworks: @Blockworks_
Barclays' VXX price jump drives double-digit gains for volatility arbitrage fund: https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/barclays-vxx-price-jump-drives-double-digit-gains-volatility-arbitrage-fund-2022-03-16/
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When Volatility Strikes, Watch Out! | Kris Sidial

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