606. How to Predict the Presidency

606. How to Predict the Presidency

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Are betting markets more accurate than polls? What kind of chaos would a second Trump term bring? And is U.S. democracy really in danger, or just “sputtering on”? (Part two of a two-part series.)

SOURCES:Eric Posner • , professor of law at the University of Chicago Law School. Koleman Strumpf • , professor of economics at Wake Forest University.

RESOURCES: • " A Trump Dictatorship Won’t Happen • ," by Eric Posner ( Project Syndicate, • 2023). The Demagogue's Playbook: The Battle for American Democracy from the Founders to Trump, • by Eric Posner (2020). • " The Long History of Political Betting Markets: An International Perspective • ," by Paul W. Rhode and Koleman Strumpf ( The Oxford Handbook of the Economics of Gambling, • 2013). • " Manipulating Political Stock Markets: A Field Experiment and a Century of Observational Data • ," by Paul W. Rhode and Koleman S. Strumpf (Working Paper, 2007). • " Historical Presidential Betting Markets • ," by Paul W. Rhode and Koleman S. Strumpf ( Journal of Economic Perspectives, • 2004).

EXTRAS: • " Has the U.S. Presidency Become a Dictatorship? (Update) • ," by Freakonomics Radio • (2024). • “ Does the President Matter as Much as You Think? • ” by Freakonomics Radio • (2020). • " How Much Does the President Really Matter? • " by Freakonomics Radio • (2010).

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