Intelligence Matters: The Relaunch

Episodes

• Trump & Xi - Managing the Mirage: Ann E. KowalewskiMichael is joined by Ann E. Kowalewski, Vice President at Beacon Global Strategies and Senior Fellow at the Institute for Indo-Pacific Security, to discuss the outcomes and regional fallout of the latest summit between President Donald Trump and People's Republic of China (PRC) Leader Xi Jinping. Ann breaks down the core dynamic she describes as "spectacle and small potatoes"—where both leaders project an image of managed bilateral stability while quietly executing competitive economic hardening behind the scenes. She also explores how Beijing prepared for a second Trump term by sharpening its economic retaliation playbook—from critical mineral export controls to the "unreliable entity" list—and examines why symbolic fentanyl tariffs and reciprocal trade frameworks have not addressed deep-seated industrial subsidies. Ann analyzes why slow-walking Taiwan arms sale packages and softening rhetoric on China weaken deterrence across the Taiwan Strait, the strategic calculations driving Beijing's timeline, and why the burgeoning "Axis of Upheaval"—linking China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea—demands a fundamental rethink of Western sanctions enforcement and economic statecraft.

  163|45min
• The Hormuz Standoff, Military Readiness, and the Axis of Aggressors: Adm. Mark Montgomery & Norman RouleRear Admiral (Ret.) Mark Montgomery and former senior CIA officer Norman Roule join Michael to assess the maritime blockade of Iran and rising friction in the Strait of Hormuz . They analyze how unprecedented economic strangulation is pressuring Tehran while testing the U.S. Navy's regional operations and global posture . Mark, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, explains how extended deployments are creating a readiness crisis that could jeopardize U.S. deterrence in late-decade flashpoints . Norman, a non-resident senior adviser with CSIS, details the regional impact of recent Houthi strikes . The three explore European allied inaction and the growing revisionist axis linking Moscow, Beijing, and Tehran . Finally, they examine what is next for two other critical geopolitical priorities: Taiwan and Ukraine .

  162|1H 2min
• Iran's Uprising, Regime Survival, and the View from Tehran: Holly DagresMichael is joined by Holly Dagres, the Libitzky Family Senior Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and editor of The Iranist, for a unique look at the internal dynamics shaping Iran amid ongoing war and economic strangulation. Holly rewinds to the December and January anti-regime uprisings that preceded the conflict, detailing the unprecedented state-led massacre of protesters and the ensuing collapse of the Iranian rial. She explains why the clerical regime's survival has radicalized a new generation of IRGC hardliners, the psychological blow dealt to ordinary Iranians by strikes on energy infrastructure, and the growing sense of abandonment felt across the country after unfulfilled promises of Western support. Holly also assesses the sustainability of Washington's naval blockade, Tehran's escalatory brinkmanship in the Persian Gulf, and what it will actually take for the Iranian public to risk returning to the streets. Additional Resources: Abdorrahman Boroumand Center Center for Human Rights in Iran

  161|40min
• Russian Resolve and Ukraine's 'Theory of Victory': Peter RoughMichael is joined by Peter Rough, Senior Fellow and Director of the Center on Europe and Eurasia at the Hudson Institute, to dissect the stalled diplomatic efforts to resolve the war between Ukraine and Russia, and the latest interventions by U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. He also assesses Ukraine's persistent deep-strike campaign against Russian refineries, mounting Russian casualty rates, and the internal frictions behind Kyiv's high-level military leadership shakeup. Finally, Peter evaluates the growing threat of Russian gray-zone sabotage across Europe and examines whether allied aid and sanctions can hold the line ahead of a difficult winter. Let us know what geopolitical topic we should focus on next, get in touch at podcast@bgsdc.com.

  160|44min
• 'Economic D-Day' & Refining Realities: Clay SeigleMichael is joined by Clay Seigle, Managing Director of Beacon Global Strategies' newly announced energy practice and former James R. Schlesinger Chair at CSIS, for an expert briefing on volatile global energy markets. Clay breaks down the economic dynamics underpinning $90-a-barrel oil, explaining how the ongoing standoff in the Strait of Hormuz, presidential messaging, and severe global refining bottlenecks are driving price fluctuations. He also analyzes the impact of Ukraine's drone strikes on Russian fuel throughput and examines the broader implications of tightening global diesel markets. Turning to the Western Hemisphere, Clay assesses the long-term feasibility and legal complexities of new U.S. investment frameworks for upgrading Venezuela's heavy sour crude resources. Finally, he highlights critical flashpoints to watch, including commercial shipping risks across the Red Sea.

  159|30min
• Netanyahu's Next Test: Yaakov KatzMichael is joined by Yaakov Katz, former Editor-in-Chief of The Jerusalem Post and author of While Israel Slept: How Hamas Surprised the Most Powerful Military in the Middle East, for an assessment of the Israeli perspective following months of joint strikes on Iran with the U.S. Yaakov explains the political impact of the war in Israel and the origins of the widening diplomatic daylight between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Washington. He also previews the upcoming Israeli elections, analyzing Netanyahu's fight for political survival against a surging opposition led by former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eizenkot. Finally, Yaakov evaluates the operational stalemate in Gaza, conditions surrounding the Board of Peace's 15-point disarmament plan, and the enduring challenges to long-term stability.

  158|52min
• From Hormuz to the Indo-Pacific: Richard FontaineMichael is joined by Richard Fontaine, CEO of the Center for a New American Security and former National Security Council official, for a strategic tour of the world's most urgent flashpoints. Richard explores the dangerous ripple effects of the Iran conflict across the Middle East, including regional powers hedging toward mutual defense pacts and the strategic costs of an open-ended naval commitment. He also evaluates recent friction in the U.S.–South Korea alliance, the pitfalls of personality-driven diplomacy with North Korea, and how military redeployments to the Middle East have left the U.S. with zero aircraft carriers currently in the Western Pacific. Finally, he and Michael examine the protracted battlefield dynamics in Ukraine, the ambiguity surrounding Washington's endgame with Moscow, and the deepening operational ties within the "Axis of Upheaval"—China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran—urging a coordinated strategy to defend frontline states without falling into regional distractions.

  157|45min
• Confronting Iran's Demands & Washington's Dilemma: Richard NephewMichael is joined by Richard Nephew, Senior Research Scholar at Columbia University's Center on Global Energy Policy and former NSC Director for Iran, to discuss the uncertain and deteriorating situation in the Persian Gulf. Richard analyzes Tehran's recent escalation of demands—from demanding the full removal of the U.S. blockade and sanctions to seeking $300 billion in reparations. He also explores the internal consolidation of power within Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) following recent decapitation strikes, detailing how a narrower, unipolar hardline faction now views aggressive deterrence as the clear path forward. Richard also breaks down global energy friction points, including severe price spreads in refined products like diesel, the limitations of covert commercial ship escorting, and the dangerous race between global economic endurance and the U.S. blockade.

  156|51min
• Moscow's Economic Fragility and Kyiv's Strategic Edge: Glenn CornMichael is joined by Glenn Corn, former CIA Chief of Station and foreign policy expert with over 34 years of experience across the U.S. intelligence, defense, and diplomatic communities. Returning from his latest trip to Ukraine, Glenn offers a candid, on-the-ground operational update on how Kyiv's military is reshaping the battlefield through mid-range FPV drone strikes, integrated AI battle management systems, and deep-strike campaigns targeting Russian oil refineries and supply lines. He also analyzes internal socio-political frictions within Russia as Moscow struggles to manage mounting casualties and economic strain.

  155|39min
• Churchill's Choices in Ukraine and What's Next in the Strait of Hormuz: Adm. Mark MontgomeryMichael is joined by Rear Admiral (Ret.) Mark Montgomery, Senior Director of the Center on Cyber and Technology Innovation at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), who just concluded his seventh trip to Ukraine since the full-scale invasion. Mark delivers an operational update on his work training Ukrainian brigade commanders and assesses the strategic political reshuffle in Kyiv. He compares President Volodymyr Zelensky to a wartime Winston Churchill—brilliant yet fallible—and evaluates the new military leadership under Gen. Mykhailo Drapatyi. Finally, Mark draws on his naval expertise to argue why the U.S. Navy must commit to physical escort operations through the Strait of Hormuz to permanently break Iran's economic grip.

  154|40min