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Blockworks

A daily analysis of macroeconomics, bitcoin, geopolitics and big picture power shifts, hosted by Nathaniel Whittemore @nlw. The Breakdown is part of Blockworks.

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The Breakdown

On this Halloween Friday Five, NLW and Scott Melker break down a wild week in macro and crypto. The Fed’s latest meeting left markets confused about future rate cuts, while Wall Street and legacy payment giants doubled down on digital assets. ICE partners with Polymarket to explore tokenized collateral, Mastercard eyes a $2B crypto acquisition, and even Western Union is launching its own stablecoin. Plus, Solana ETFs crush expectations, and what this cycle’s institutional dominance means for the future of crypto markets.

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Wall Street’s Crypto Push, Western Union’s Stablecoin, and the Fed’s Halloween Confusion

Markets got the rate cut they expected — but not the clarity they wanted. Fed Chair Jerome Powell stunned investors by signaling that December’s cut is “far from a foregone conclusion,” while also announcing an end to quantitative tightening. With two dissents on the committee and growing confusion over data gaps from the government shutdown, Powell’s cautious tone left markets guessing. Stocks whipsawed, Bitcoin fell, and questions mounted about liquidity risk and the so-called “AI bubble.” Today on The Breakdown, NLW unpacks a Fed day that left everyone wondering what comes next.

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Fed Cuts as Expected, But Powell Keeps Markets Guessing

Polymarket is preparing to relaunch in the U.S. after years in regulatory exile, now armed with a CFTC-compliant license and a $9B valuation. The move signals a new era for prediction markets—blurring the line between crypto, sports betting, and social platforms. Plus: Visa’s stablecoin expansion, Western Union’s on-chain pivot, and BlackRock’s Larry Fink calls Bitcoin an “asset of fear.”

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Polymarket’s $9B Comeback: Prediction Markets Return to the U.S.

Standard Chartered’s Jeff Kendrick says if this week goes well, Bitcoin may never drop below $100,000 again. NLW breaks down the key macro catalysts — a dovish Fed, a potential U.S.–China trade thaw, and tech earnings from Microsoft, Meta, Google, Apple, and Amazon — that could make this the decisive week for markets. Plus, updates on MicroStrategy’s credit downgrade, new Solana and Litecoin ETFs, and Coinbase’s major partnerships with Apollo and Citi.

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Will Bitcoin Ever Fall Below $100K Again?

Bitcoin and risk assets jumped as the U.S. and China appeared to reach a framework agreement that takes 100% tariffs and rare earth restrictions off the table. NLW breaks down what the potential trade deal means for markets, why optimism is back, and how JPMorgan’s move to accept Bitcoin and Ethereum as loan collateral signals a major shift in traditional finance’s relationship with crypto. Plus, new controversy over Binance’s lobbying spend and Trump’s CFTC pick.

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Bitcoin Surges on Hopes of a China Deal

NLW and Scott Melker chop up another week, with a big discussion of the controversial CZ pardon. 

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The Five Most Important Stories in Crypto

A tense closed-door meeting between Senate Democrats and crypto executives erupted into frustration and accusations after the leak of a draft market structure proposal seen as a de facto DeFi ban. NLW breaks down what went wrong in the meeting, why trust between Democrats and the crypto industry is fraying, and how the stalled bill could slip past year-end. Plus, new GOP efforts to modernize financial crime reporting laws, the banking lobby’s fight against stablecoin interest, and Standard Chartered’s bearish short-term Bitcoin call.

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Democrats Blow Up at Crypto Executives Over Market Structure Bill

Gold’s record-breaking rally just snapped with its biggest one-day drop in over a decade, and now traders are asking whether the long-anticipated rotation from gold into Bitcoin has begun. In today’s episode, NLW breaks down what caused gold’s blow-off top, why even small capital shifts from the $20 trillion gold market could send Bitcoin soaring, and how new Fed policy, Tether’s explosive growth, and whale flows into ETFs are reshaping the balance between crypto and traditional finance.

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Is the Gold to Bitcoin Rotation Underway?

A massive AWS outage took down huge portions of the internet this week, and crypto wasn’t spared — Coinbase’s Base network went offline, MetaMask users saw zero balances, and much of the industry’s infrastructure stumbled. On today’s Breakdown, NLW explores what the event revealed about crypto’s dependence on centralized services, why Bitcoin and Ethereum’s uptime tell a different story, and how it’s fueling renewed debate about decentralization just as regulators and institutions weigh the next phase of the market.

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Why the Internet Crash Made Bitcoin Look Stronger

After a brutal flash crash and a week of weak trading, many in the crypto world are asking if the cycle is done. Bitcoin has held above $100K, but altcoins have been crushed, sentiment has cratered, and major voices like Chris Burniske and Ansem are turning bearish. Still, some analysts think we’re just seeing the most hated rally in history. Plus: Stripe’s $5B Tempo blockchain raises big questions about the future of institutional crypto—and China clamps down on tech giants issuing stablecoins while Japan’s banks push forward.

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Is It All Over for Crypto?

Bitcoin just wrapped a volatile Labor Day weekend, with prices dropping 14% from August highs before bouncing slightly above $110K. Analysts debate whether the correction is over, with leverage rebuilding, sentiment turning jittery, and gold surging as a possible leading signal. We dig into Bitcoin’s historical September weakness, why Q3 often stalls out before a Q4 rally, and how whale rotations, global liquidity, and Washington’s packed crypto agenda are shaping the months ahead.

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Bitcoin Seasonality Means A Messy September Set Up

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