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Blockworks

A daily analysis of macroeconomics, bitcoin, geopolitics and big picture power shifts, hosted by Nathaniel Whittemore @nlw. The Breakdown is part of Blockworks.

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The Breakdown

Bitcoin’s October rally isn’t just another crypto surge — it’s part of what JPMorgan calls the Debasement Trade. As gold spikes and the dollar weakens, major banks and economists are finally voicing fears long held by Bitcoiners: runaway deficits, fading Fed independence, and a loss of faith in fiat currencies. Today NLW unpacks why Wall Street is suddenly embracing Bitcoin as a hedge against currency decay, how Japan’s yield crisis and global debt pressures fit in, and what the IMF’s latest warnings mean for the next phase of this trade.

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Wall Street Discovers the “Debasement Trade”

The parent company of the New York Stock Exchange just made a $2 billion investment in Polymarket, valuing the prediction-market platform at $9 billion and signaling a huge shift toward crypto-native financial infrastructure. NLW breaks down what the deal means for institutional adoption, how it compares to ICE’s previous crypto efforts, and why this could mark a new phase for decentralized finance. Plus: Bitcoin’s brief pullback, S&P Global’s new crypto index, BNY Mellon’s tokenized deposits, and Christine Lagarde’s latest anti-Bitcoin comments.

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ICE Invests $2 Billion in Polymarket

Galaxy Digital just launched Galaxy One — a platform merging crypto, stocks, and yield accounts into a single financial hub. Coinbase is pursuing a banking charter. Stripe and stablecoin issuers are driving a yield war that could upend global banking profits. Standard Chartered warns of $1T in emerging-market capital flight to stablecoins. From TradFi’s defensive moves to FinTech’s stablecoin play, today’s Breakdown explores how the financial system’s borders are dissolving before our eyes.

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The TradFi-Crypto Fusion Is Here

Bitcoin hit a new all-time high over the weekend, surging past $125,000 and capping its strongest week since May. Analysts point to ETF inflows, a weakening dollar, and broad asset rotation as drivers behind the move — while skeptics warn of monetary panic and late-cycle exuberance. In today’s episode, NLW explores whether this is a true macro melt-up, what it means for institutional adoption, and how traditional portfolios are evolving as hard assets take center stage.

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Bitcoin Breaks $125,000: The October Melt-Up Is On

On today’s Breakdown, NLW kicks off the first Friday Five of October with Bitcoin’s soaring price action. From October’s uncanny seasonality and ETF inflow momentum to government shutdown delays and Citi and JPMorgan’s bold predictions, the conversation explores why markets seem determined to shrug off risk. NLW also covers the potential regulatory fallout of a prolonged shutdown, new SEC-CFTC collaboration, Kraken’s $20B raise, and Stripe’s stablecoin play. Plus, the week’s strangest culture clash story—Netflix cancellations over Elon Musk tweets.

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The Five Most Important Stories in Crypto This Week

October has a reputation as Bitcoin’s strongest month, and so far 2025 is no exception. After a choppy September, BTC is already pushing back toward new all-time highs, shrugging off a government shutdown and showing signs of strong demand. Analysts are debating whether this is the setup for another monster Q4, with some even eyeing $200,000 by year end. We also look at how the shutdown is stalling crypto ETF approvals, new IRS guidance that saved MicroStrategy billions, Stripe’s stablecoin launch, and why some believe Tether could become the world’s most profitable company.

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Bitcoin’s Favorite Month Has Arrived

As of midnight, the U.S. government has officially shut down after Democrats and Republicans failed to reach a last-minute deal. In today’s Breakdown, NLW explores the political brinkmanship behind the shutdown, how the White House may use it to reshape federal programs, and the macroeconomic fallout as millions of workers go unpaid. From consumer confidence and labor market risks to gold at all-time highs, Bitcoin resilience, and AI’s outsized role in holding up U.S. growth, we examine whether this shutdown could be the shock that tips the economy into recession—or just another political spectacle markets shrug off.

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Government Shutdown Hits as Politics Markets and AI Collide

After years of turf wars, the SEC and CFTC are finally signaling a new era of collaboration. At their first joint roundtable in 14 years, agency heads emphasized coordination over consolidation, while industry voices clashed over tokenization standards and compliance. We also break down the SEC’s first crypto no-action letter in five years, Binance’s new white-label push for TradFi, SWIFT’s blockchain integration plans, and the latest on Bitcoin’s September slide and October ETF outlook.

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SEC & CFTC Call a Truce on Crypto Regulation

Fortune revealed that Kraken quietly raised $500 million at a $15 billion valuation—its first significant raise in over a decade—as the exchange eyes a 2026 IPO. Bloomberg followed up with reports of another potential $200–300 million round at a $20 billion valuation. We dig into what this means for Kraken’s future, the escalating scale of Tether’s $500 billion fundraise, growing scrutiny of crypto treasury companies, and SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce’s farewell vision for a new era of crypto regulation.

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Kraken’s $15B Secret Raise and the Race to IPO

In this week’s Friday Five, we dive into Tether’s jaw-dropping $500B valuation bid, the SEC’s surprise innovation exemption, bipartisan momentum on a market structure bill, Ethereum’s latest Wall Street narrative, and breaking news that even Vanguard is finally letting customers buy crypto ETFs. Plus, what Bitcoin’s bloody September tells us about the cycle ahead.

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Friday Five: Tether’s $500B Play, SEC Opens the Door, and Vanguard Bows to Crypto

A reading and discussion inspired by https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/05/01/sell-in-may-and-go-away-the-seasonality-of-crypto-asset-returns/
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For Bitcoin, Is It "Sell in May and Go Away"?

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