For a ‘Weaker’ Modi, BJP Must Win, But With Less Than 2014 Tally

An assortment of exit poll data, including grossly unscientific ‘mean’ figures in the so-called ‘poll of polls’, has been put on the table. Till actual counting on 23 May – people will, depending on their political orientation and which pollster they decide to go with – rejoice or grieve.

As per CVoter, the Congress-led UPA is projected to get 128 seats, while the BJP-led NDA could bring in a total of 287. The Congress by itself is projected to get 80 seats, while BJP alone is projected to win 236 seats.

The Mahagathbandhan looks set to grab 40 seats, while the TMC in Bengal is set to get 29 seats.

However, given the inconsistent track record of pollsters over several elections, exit polls at best, give only a general sense of the direction India is heading in. At worst, they could have got everything wrong.

It is obvious that much depends on the final tally. It would determine equations among parties, and decide who gets to sit with who in the Treasury Benches in Parliament, or are relegated to the Opposition rows. At this stage thereby, several scenarios are in store, and it is worth examining these, as India's social, economic and political future will vary, based on which of these possibilities become reality.

In random order, let us take the most talked-about post-poll scenario in the run-up to the long, cacophonous, bordering on loutish, electoral campaign.

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