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Blockworks

A daily analysis of macroeconomics, bitcoin, geopolitics and big picture power shifts, hosted by Nathaniel Whittemore @nlw. The Breakdown is part of Blockworks.

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The Breakdown

Extreme fear grips the market and Bitcoin dips into the mid-$90Ks, but the real story is everything happening underneath the sell-off. This Friday 5 breaks down the heavy wallet distribution, the liquidation wave, and why short-term price pain contrasts so sharply with long-term structural progress — from new SEC/CFTC clarity efforts to bipartisan draft legislation, from Coinbase’s launchpad experiment to JPMorgan’s deposit token push. A clear look at the week when crypto quietly advanced despite the charts.

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The Week Crypto Moved Forward While Prices Fell Behind

NLW looks at what the end of the 43-day government shutdown means for crypto, from the CFTC finally moving toward a confirmed chair and opening the door to regulated spot markets, to the SEC racing to revive its tokenization and ETF agenda. He breaks down how Congress is picking up the stalled market-structure bill, what renewed Treasury spending means for liquidity, and why macro uncertainty is rising even as Washington gets back to work.

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What the End of the Shutdown Really Means for Crypto

China is accusing the US of hacking a major Bitcoin mining pool in 2020 and stealing 127,000 BTC—now worth more than $13 billion. NLW breaks down the origins of the Labuyan hack, why the coins later appeared in DOJ-linked wallets, the allegations surrounding Chinese billionaire Chen Ji, and what this fight reveals about Bitcoin’s role in rising US–China tensions. Plus, a quick look at Coinbase’s move to revive US token sales.

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Did the US Steal $13 Billion in Bitcoin? China Says Yes

After one of Bitcoin’s sharpest sell-offs of the cycle, sentiment across crypto turned fearful as whales dumped billions and ETFs saw record outflows. But a weekend surge of political and fiscal news — from Trump’s proposed $2,000 “tariff dividend” to 50-year mortgages and a government-reopening deal — reignited markets and sent Bitcoin rebounding. NLW breaks down what’s driving the volatility, how institutional analysts are recalibrating their price targets, and why macro liquidity may still be the ultimate bull case.

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Bitcoin’s $100K Test and the Return of Stimmy Checks

On this Halloween Friday Five, NLW and Scott Melker break down a wild week in macro and crypto. The Fed’s latest meeting left markets confused about future rate cuts, while Wall Street and legacy payment giants doubled down on digital assets. ICE partners with Polymarket to explore tokenized collateral, Mastercard eyes a $2B crypto acquisition, and even Western Union is launching its own stablecoin. Plus, Solana ETFs crush expectations, and what this cycle’s institutional dominance means for the future of crypto markets.

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Wall Street’s Crypto Push, Western Union’s Stablecoin, and the Fed’s Halloween Confusion

Markets got the rate cut they expected — but not the clarity they wanted. Fed Chair Jerome Powell stunned investors by signaling that December’s cut is “far from a foregone conclusion,” while also announcing an end to quantitative tightening. With two dissents on the committee and growing confusion over data gaps from the government shutdown, Powell’s cautious tone left markets guessing. Stocks whipsawed, Bitcoin fell, and questions mounted about liquidity risk and the so-called “AI bubble.” Today on The Breakdown, NLW unpacks a Fed day that left everyone wondering what comes next.

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Fed Cuts as Expected, But Powell Keeps Markets Guessing

Polymarket is preparing to relaunch in the U.S. after years in regulatory exile, now armed with a CFTC-compliant license and a $9B valuation. The move signals a new era for prediction markets—blurring the line between crypto, sports betting, and social platforms. Plus: Visa’s stablecoin expansion, Western Union’s on-chain pivot, and BlackRock’s Larry Fink calls Bitcoin an “asset of fear.”

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Polymarket’s $9B Comeback: Prediction Markets Return to the U.S.

Standard Chartered’s Jeff Kendrick says if this week goes well, Bitcoin may never drop below $100,000 again. NLW breaks down the key macro catalysts — a dovish Fed, a potential U.S.–China trade thaw, and tech earnings from Microsoft, Meta, Google, Apple, and Amazon — that could make this the decisive week for markets. Plus, updates on MicroStrategy’s credit downgrade, new Solana and Litecoin ETFs, and Coinbase’s major partnerships with Apollo and Citi.

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Will Bitcoin Ever Fall Below $100K Again?

Bitcoin and risk assets jumped as the U.S. and China appeared to reach a framework agreement that takes 100% tariffs and rare earth restrictions off the table. NLW breaks down what the potential trade deal means for markets, why optimism is back, and how JPMorgan’s move to accept Bitcoin and Ethereum as loan collateral signals a major shift in traditional finance’s relationship with crypto. Plus, new controversy over Binance’s lobbying spend and Trump’s CFTC pick.

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Bitcoin Surges on Hopes of a China Deal

NLW and Scott Melker chop up another week, with a big discussion of the controversial CZ pardon. 

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The Five Most Important Stories in Crypto

September. On the one hand investors start coming back from the summer. On the other, it tends not to be a great month for markets. That's especially true in crypto, where September tends to be one of Bitcoin's worst months. With no strong narrative in sight, is history doomed to repeat? 

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What September Has In Store For Bitcoin

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