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Justin Kempf


Is it possible for a democracy to govern undemocratically? Can the people elect an undemocratic leader? Is it possible for democracy to bring about authoritarianism? And if so, what does this say about democracy? ​​My name is Justin Kempf. Every week I talk to the brightest minds on subjects like international relations, political theory, and history to explore democracy from every conceivable angle. Topics like civil resistance, authoritarian successor parties, and the autocratic middle class challenge our ideas about democracy. Join me as we unravel new topics every week.


Democracy Paradox

Decreasing incumbent capacity and affective polarization are making incumbency salient, but also more of a curse than a blessing.

Luis Schiumerini

In this episode of The Democracy Paradox, host Justin Kempf speaks with Notre Dame political scientist Luis Schiumerini about his new book Incumbency Bias: Why Political Office is a Blessing and a Curse in Latin America. Schiumerini challenges common assumptions about incumbents, demonstrating that holding office can create systematic advantages – or disadvantages – depending on the institutional context. Before the conversation begins, Kellogg Doctoral Student Affiliate Tomás Gianibelli joins Kempf to share his experience working with Schiumerini and to explain why this research reshapes how scholars think about democracy.

 The Democracy Paradox is made in partnership with the Kellogg Institute of the Keough School of Global Affairs at the University of Notre Dame. 

Read the full transcript here.

Key Highlights

 • Introduction - 0:20
 • What is Incumbency Bias - 6:06
 • Incumbency Disadvantage on the Rise - 23:58
 • Term Limits - 31:39
 • Implications for Democracy - 36:52

Links:

Learn more about Luis Schiumerini

Learn more about his book Incumbency Bias: Why Political Office is a Blessing and a Curse in Latin America

Learn more about Tomás Gianibelli

Learn more about the Kellogg Institute.

Support the show

Luis Schiumerini on Incumbency Bias

The biggest disappointment is that democracies do not reduce social and economic inequality.

Adam Przeworski

In this episode, host Justin Kempf talks with political scientist Adam Przeworski about what truly defines democracy today. Przeworski explains why he sees no global democratic crisis, defends a minimalist view centered on free and fair elections, and reflects on why democracies struggle to reduce inequality. He also discusses why citizens sometimes tolerate democratic erosion and how modern autocracies maintain support, offering a clear and concise perspective on democracy’s strengths and limits. Alejandro González Ruiz, cohost of the Kellogg Institute's Global Stage podcast, joins to help introduce the episode.

The Democracy Paradox is made in partnership with the Kellogg Institute of the Keough School of Global Affairs at the University of Notre Dame. 

Read the full transcript here.

Key Highlights

 • Introduction - 0:20
 • Minimal Democracy and Democratic Crisis - 9:44
 • Economic Inequality and Democracy - 22:37
 • Autocracy and Popular Support - 31:42
 • Democratic Backsliding - 36:09

Links

Learn more about Adam Przeworski.

Learn more about his book Crises of Democracy (Cambridge University Press, 2019).

Learn more about Alejandro González Ruiz.

Learn more about the Kellogg Institute.

Apes of the State created all Music

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Adam Przeworski Asks Who Decides What is Democratic

For democratic revolutions to survive counterrevolution, they have to make certain choices that can undermine the quality of their democracy.

Killian Clarke

Political scientist Killian Clarke joins The Democracy Paradox to discuss his new book, Return of Tyranny: Why Counterrevolutions Emerge and Succeed. He explains why democratic revolutions are especially vulnerable to reversal, how elites and citizens can align in counterrevolutionary movements, and what these dynamics reveal about democracy’s fragility and endurance today. Amanda Waterhouse, a postdoctoral democracy researcher at the Kellogg Institute also joins to help introduce the episode.

The Democracy Paradox is made in partnership with the Kellogg Institute of the Keough School of Global Affairs at the University of Notre Dame. 

Read the full transcript here.

Key Highlights

 • Introduction - 0:20
 • Counterrevolutions as Mass Movements - 9:59
 • Prevalence and Success of Counterrevolution - 19:08
 • Is Counterrevolution Always Bad? - 33:22
 • Why Some Revolutionaries Join the Counterrevolution - 41:12

Links

Learn more about Amanda Waterhouse.

Learn more about Killian Clarke.

Learn more about Clarke's book Return of Tyranny: Why Counterrevolutions Emerge and Succeed (Cambridge University Press, 2025)

Learn more about the Kellogg Institute.

Apes of the State created all Music

Support the show

Killian Clarke Warns Counterrevolution is a Threat to Nascent Democracies

The regime question at its core is about how we should govern ourselves... This is an enduring question that is essential to democratic politics.

Amel Ahmed

This episode begins with host Justin Kempf and Javier Pérez Sandoval setting the stage for a deep dive into the “regime question,” highlighting its significance in democratic theory and contemporary politics. Their introductory discussion explores foundational divides in political systems and frames the questions that will be pursued, particularly the tensions between institutional arrangements and party cleavages. The heart of the episode follows as Kempf interviews Amel Ahmed, who draws on her comparative research to examine historical battles over parliamentary power, suffrage, and executive authority in the United Kingdom, United States, and Germany. Ahmed connects these cases to present-day concerns about legislative dysfunction and polarization, demonstrating that ongoing contestation over the rules of democracy is both persistent and essential to democratic governance.

The Democracy Paradox is made in partnership with the Kellogg Institute of the Keough School of Global Affairs at the University of Notre Dame. 

Read the full transcript here.

Amel Ahmed is an assistant professor at the University of Massachusetts Amherst and the author of the book The Regime Question: Foundations of Democratic Governance in Europe and the United States. 

Key Highlights

 • Introduction - 0:20
 • What is the Regime Question - 8:42
 • Electoral Authoritarianism - 25:05
 • Resolving the Regime Question - 36:03
 • Implications for Democracy - 44:47

Links

Learn more about Javier Pérez Sandoval

Learn more about Amel Ahmed

Learn more about her book, The Regime Question: Foundations of Democratic Governance in Europe and the United States

Learn more about the Kellogg Institute

Support the show

Amel Ahmed Says the Regime Question Has Returned

After an introductory conversation with Kellogg Faculty Fellow Marc Jacob, Democracy Paradox host Justin Kempf explores the dynamics of global democracy with renowned expert Thomas Carothers. Carothers, the director of the Carnegie Endowment's Democracy, Conflict, and Governance Program, shares his deep knowledge and firsthand experiences in democracy promotion, focusing on the importance of coalition-building, inclusive leadership, and long-term commitment in sustaining democratic movements. Drawing from case studies in Latin America, particularly Chile and Brazil, he provides thoughtful reflections on the challenges and successes of political activism. This conversation offers insights for scholars, policymakers, and activists dedicated to advancing resilient democratic institutions worldwide.

 The Democracy Paradox is made in partnership with the Kellogg Institute of the Keough School of Global Affairs at the University of Notre Dame. 

Read the full transcript here.

Tom Carothers is the Director of the Democracy Conflict and Governance Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He's the author of numerous books and articles. Some of his most recent articles and reports include “Misunderstanding Democratic Backsliding,” “Lessons about Backsliding and Resistance,” and “Understanding and Responding to Global Democratic Backsliding.” 

Chapters

 • Introduction with Marc Jacob - 0:20
 • Explanations for Backsliding - 8:40
 • Role of Institutions - 24:28
 • Polarization - 37:31
 • Democratic Hardball - 39:24

Links:

Learn more about Marc Jacob.

Learn more about Thomas Carothers.

Learn more about the Democracy, Conflict, and Governance Program of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Learn more about the Kellogg Institute.

Support the show

Tom Carothers Says We Misunderstand Democratic Backsliding

Javier Corrales, professor of political science at Amherst College, discusses his recent research on democratic backsliding and intentional polarization. The discussion explores how leaders employ extremist policies and ideological rhetoric to consolidate executive power, drawing comparisons between Venezuela, the United States, and other global contexts. An introductory conversation with Kellogg Visiting Fellow Henry Moncrieff offers a nuanced look at opposition strategies and the complex factors shaping democratic resilience and decline.

Read the transcript here.

 The Democracy Paradox is made in partnership with the Kellogg Institute of the Keough School of Global Affairs at the University of Notre Dame. 

Javier Corrales is Dwight W. Morrow 1895 professor of Political Science at Amherst College in Amherst, Massachusetts. He is the author of the book Autocracy Rising: How Venezuela Transitioned to Authoritarianism as well as numerous scholarly articles. His most recent article (coauthored with Ricardo José Salas Díaz) is "Intentional Polarization: How Policy Extremism and Ideological Overuse Promote Democratic Backsliding" published in Democratization. 

Chapters

 • Introduction with Henry Moncrieff 0:20
 • Leaders Drive Polarization 5:48
 • Radicalization 15:43
 • Opposition Response 26:32
 • Role of the Public - 37:29

Learn more about Javier Corrales.

Learn more about Henry Moncrieff.

Learn more about the Kellogg Institute.

Support the show

Javier Corrales on Intentional Polarization

In this episode, Justin interviews Susan Stokes, the Tiffany and Margaret Blake Distinguished Service Professor of Political Science at the University of Chicago and Director of the Chicago Center on Democracy. They discuss her new book The Backsliders, which explains how economic inequality and political polarization create conditions that allow leaders to undermine democratic institutions. She explores the roles of populism, voter behavior, and institutional erosion in democratic backsliding worldwide.

Read the transcript here.

The Democracy Paradox is made in partnership with the Kellogg Institute at the Keough School of Global Affairs at the University of Notre Dame. 

Chapters

 • Introduction - 0:20
 • Leadership - 3:51
 • Economic Inequality - 6:35
 • Polarization - 19:35
 • Populism - 27:27

Key Links

Learn more about Susan Stokes.

Backsliders: Why Leaders Undermine their Own Democracies

Victoria Murillo - The Social Underpinnings of Political Discontent in Latin America - September 23rd, 12:30pm - 2:00pm Central Time. If you can't make it, click here to watch the video!

Check out this year's visiting fellows to the Kellogg Institute here.

Support the show

Susan Stokes on Democratic Backsliders

We've often compared democratic national security and autocratic security making in terms of autocratic elites and democratic voters. My argument is not that all democracies are the same, but I do think we ought to be thinking about autocratic elites and democratic elites and voters.

Elizabeth Saunders

Proudly sponsored by the Kellogg Institute for International Studies. Learn more at https://kellogg.nd.edu

Proudly sponsored by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Learn more at https://carnegieendowment.org

A full transcript is available at www.democracyparadox.com.

Elizabeth Saunders is a Professor of Political Science at Columbia University as well as a non-resident senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. She is also an editor of The Good Authority Blog formerly known as The Monkey Cage Blog. Her most recent book is The Insiders’ Game: How Elites Make War and Peace.

Key Highlights

 • Introduction - 0:20
 • How Foreign Policy Works - 3:30
 • Politics at the Water's Edge - 18:13
 • Parties and Foreign Policy - 27:09
 • Contemporary Politics - 41:28

Key Links

The Insiders’ Game: How Elites Make War and Peace by Elizabeth Saunders

Good Authority Blog

Learn more about Elizabeth Saunders

Democracy Paradox Podcast

Rep Mikie Sherrill on Whether the Bipartisan Consensus on Foreign Policy Will Hold and on Threats to American Democracy

Grading Biden’s Foreign Policy with Alexander Ward

More Episodes from the Podcast

More Information

Apes of the State created all Music

Email the show at democracyparadoxblog@gmail.com

Follow on Twitter @DemParadox, Facebook, Instagram @democracyparadoxpodcast

100 Books on Democracy

Support the show

The Last Episode. Elizabeth Saunders on How Democracies Wage War and Make Peace

I think we've seen democracies can be unstable. Autocracies are even more unstable.

David Moss

Made in partnership with the Ash Center for Democratic Governance and Innovation

Get your copy of When Democracy Breaks or read it open access.

Access Episodes Ad-Free on Patreon

Make a one-time Donation to Democracy Paradox.

Proudly sponsored by the Kellogg Institute for International Studies. Learn more at https://kellogg.nd.edu

Proudly sponsored by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Learn more at https://carnegieendowment.org

A full transcript is available at www.democracyparadox.com.

Archon Fung is the Winthrop Laflin McCormack Professor of Citizenship and Self-Government at the Harvard Kennedy School. He is also the Director of the Ash Center for Democratic Governance and Innovation.

David Moss is the Paul Whiton Cherington Professor at Harvard Business School. He is also founder and president of the Tobin Project and the Case Method Institute for Education and Democracy.

Arne Westad is the Elihu Professor of History and Global Affairs at Yale University.

They are the editors of When Democracy Breaks: Studies in Democratic Erosion and Collapse, From Ancient Athens to the Present Day.

Key Highlights

 • Introduction - 0:20
 • Thinking about Democratic Breakdown - 3:51
 • What is Democracy - 19:26
 • Democratic Recovery - 26:36
 • Resilience and Fragility - 45:15

Key Links

When Democracy Breaks: Studies in Democratic Erosion and Collapse, From Ancient Athens to the Present Day edited by Archon Fung, David Moss, and Odd Arne Westad

"Introduction: When Democracy Breaks" by Archon Fung, David Moss, and Odd Arne Westad

Ash Center for Democratic Governance and Innovation

Democracy Paradox Podcast

When Democracy Breaks: Scott Mainwaring on Argentina

When Democracy Breaks: 1930s Japan with Louise Young

More Episodes from the Podcast

More Information

Apes of the State created all Music

Email the show at jkempf@democracyparadox.com

Follow on Twitter @DemParadox, Facebook, Instagram @democracyparadoxpodcast

100 Books on Democracy

Support the show

When Democracy Breaks: Final Thoughts with Archon Fung, David Moss and Arne Westad

March 24th, 1976 is the coup and it unleashes wild celebrations in establishment Argentina and almost no opposition.... Of course, this unleashed the most ruthless dictatorship in Argentina's history and in recent South American history as well.

Scott Mainwaring

Made in partnership with the Ash Center for Democratic Governance and Innovation

Get your copy of When Democracy Breaks or read it open access.

Access Episodes Ad-Free on Patreon

Make a one-time Donation to Democracy Paradox.

Proudly sponsored by the Kellogg Institute for International Studies. Learn more at https://kellogg.nd.edu

Proudly sponsored by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Learn more at https://carnegieendowment.org

A full transcript is available at www.democracyparadox.com.

Scott Mainwaring is the Eugene and Helen Conley Professor of Political Science at Notre Dame. He was elected to the American Academy of Arts and Sciences in 2010. His most recent book is Democracy in Hard Places (coedited with Tarek Masoud). In April 2019, PS: Political Science and Politics listed him as one of the 50 most cited political scientists in the world.

Key Highlights

 • Introduction - 0:20
 • Democratization in 1973 - 3:41
 • Democratic Erosion - 18:30
 • Breakdown - 39:08
 • Argentina Today - 43:18

Key Links

When Democracy Breaks: Studies in Democratic Erosion and Collapse, From Ancient Athens to the Present Day edited by Archon Fung, David Moss, and Odd Arne Westad

"Democratic Breakdown in Argentina, 1976" by Scott Mainwaring

Ash Center for Democratic Governance and Innovation

Democracy Paradox Podcast

Scott Mainwaring on Argentina and a Final Reflection on Democracy in Hard Places

When Democracy Breaks: 1930s Japan with Louise Young

More Episodes from the Podcast

More Information

Apes of the State created all Music

Email the show at jkempf@democracyparadox.com

Follow on Twitter @DemParadox, Facebook, Instagram @democracyparadoxpodcast

100 Books on Democracy

Support the show

Adam Przeworski Asks Who Decides What is Democratic

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