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BBC Radio 4

Tim Harford and the More or Less team try to make sense of the statistics which surround us. From BBC Radio 4

More or Less: Behind the Stats

In a recent speech to the UN, US president Donald Trump set out some remarkable figures on the proportion of inmates in European prisons who were foreign nationals.

Citing statistics from the Council of Europe, he references Greece, Germany and Austria, as having rates around 50%.

“In Switzerland, beautiful Switzerland,” he said “72% of the people in prisons are from outside of Switzerland.”
These numbers are correct, but why are the percentages so high – particularly in Switzerland?

Tim Harford speaks to Professor Marcelo Aebi, a criminologist from the University of Lausanne, who wrote the prisons report for the Council of Europe.

If you’ve seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at, let us know: moreorless@bbc.co.uk

Presenter: Tim Harford
Producer: Tom Colls
Sound mix: Rod Farquhar
Editor: Richard Vadon

Are 72% of prison inmates in Switzerland foreign?

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:

The Daily Mail says that over half of the UK population live in households that get more in benefits than they pay in tax - is it true?

Do some billionaires earn more in a night than the population of Bournemouth earns in a year? New Green leader Zack Polanski seems to think so - we scrutinise the figures.

Are older generations getting smarter?

Have 77% of Gen-Z brought a parent along to a job interview? Really?

If you’ve seen a number you think we should take a look at, email the team: moreorless@bbc.co.uk

Presenter: Tim Harford
Reporter: Lizzy McNeill
Producer: Nathan Gower
Series producer: Tom Colls
Production co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele
Sound mix: Duncan Hannant
Editor: Richard Vadon

Does half the UK get more in benefits than they pay in tax?

When you follow the news, particularly in countries like the UK and the US, it sometimes feels like people are less optimistic about their lives than they were in the past.
But a new piece of analysis from polling company Gallup suggests this might just be the local view, not the global one.
Using data from the Gallup World Poll, it suggests that “people in more countries are living better lives and expressing more hope for the future” than at any point in the last decade.

Tim Harford speaks to Gallup’s Benedict Vigers, who wrote the report, to understand what improvements in the “global median for thriving” really means.
If you’ve seen a number in the news you think we should look at, email the team: moreorless@bbc.co.uk

Presenter: Tim Harford
Series producer: Tom Colls
Sound mix: Bob Nettles
Editor: Richard Vadon

Is the world getting less miserable?

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:

US President Donald Trump claims he has ended seven “unendable” wars. Is that true?

Chancellor Rachel Reeves says the UK was the fastest growing economy in the G7 for the first six months of 2025. What do you need to know about that stat?

The Daily Mail has described a recent scientific paper as describing a global cancer “explosion”. Is that the whole story?

And why have Oxford and Cambridge dropped down a university league table?

If you’ve seen a number you think we should take a look at, email the team: moreorless@bbc.co.uk

Presenter: Tim Harford
Producers: Nathan Gower and Lizzy McNeill
Series producer: Tom Colls
Production co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele
Sound mix: Gareth Jones
Editor: Richard Vadon

Has Donald Trump ended seven 'unendable' wars?

In early February 2025, something strange started happening across US government websites. 

Decades of data began disappearing from webpages for agencies such as the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention, the National Institutes of Health and the Census Bureau. In many cases the entire website went dark. 
Within a few days some 8,000 government pages and 3,000 datasets had been taken down. Since then, many have been reinstated - but some have not. 
We speak to Professors Maggie Levenstein and John Kubale to find out why this data was taken away, and why any of it matters. 

If you spot any numbers or statistical claims that you think we should check out contact: moreorless@bbc.co.uk 

Presenter: Tim Harford
Producer: Lizzy McNeill
Series Producer: Tom Colls
Editor: Richard Vadon
Production Co-Ordinator: Rosie Strawbridge 
Audio Mix: Neil Churchill

The Case of the Missing US Data

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:

Lib Dem leader Sir Ed Davey says it was easier to deport illegal migrants to Europe when we were in the EU. Is that true?

Did the governor of the Bank of England get his numbers wrong on the UK’s ageing population?

Why is the price of beef up by 25% in a year?

Is it possible to prove that MPs are using AI to write their speeches?

If you’ve seen a number you think we should take a look at, email the team: moreorless@bbc.co.uk

Presenter: Tim Harford
Reporter: Lizzy McNeill
Producers: Nathan Gower and Nicholas Barrett
Series producer: Tom Colls
Production co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele
Sound mix: Gareth Jones
Editor: Richard Vadon

Was it easier to deport migrants to France before Brexit?

On September the 10th 2025, right-wing political activist and media personality Charlie Kirk was assassinated while speaking at an event in Utah. In the aftermath, his friend JD Vance, the US Vice President, hosted a special memorial edition of ‘The Charlie Kirk Show’, live from the White House, during which he called for unity, but said that could only be found by “climbing the mountain of truth”. 

“While our side of the aisle certainly has its crazies, it is a statistical fact that most of the lunatics in American politics today are proud members of the far left,” he said. We investigate the statistical evidence around political violence – both in people’s attitudes and the crimes themselves. 

Presenter: Tim Harford 
Reporter: Lizzy McNeill 
Series producer: Tom Colls 
Sound mix: Hal Haines 
Editor: Richard Vadon

Is JD Vance right about left-wing violence?

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:

Nigel Farage says 6.5 million people are on out-of-work benefits – with some benefits up 80% since 2018. Are those numbers right?

Do French pensioners really earn more than their working-age compatriots?

How is it possible for one kilogram of fish food to produce one kilogram of salmon?

And do we really have five senses?

If you’ve seen a number you think we should take a look at, email the team: moreorless@bbc.co.uk

Presenter: Tim Harford
Reporter: Lizzy McNeill
Producer: Nicholas Barrett
Series producer: Tom Colls
Production co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele
Sound mix: Neil Churchill
Editor: Richard Vadon

Is it true that out-of-work benefits have almost doubled?

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang says the world faces a severe labour shortage – 50 million workers by the end of the decade.
The boss of the world’s most valuable company thinks humanoid robots will be needed to fill the gap.

But is this prediction based on solid evidence?

Tim Harford looks at the calculations behind the claim with Rajiv Gupta, a technology expert at Boston Consulting Group, who is the likely source of the 50 million figure.

If you’ve seen a number in the news you think we should look at, email the team: moreorless@bbc.co.uk

Presenter: Tim Harford
Producer: Nicholas Barrett
Series producer: Tom Colls
Sound mix: Hal Haines
Editor: Richard Vadon

Will the world really be 50 million workers short by 2030?

Tim Harford looks at some of the numbers in the news. This week:

Is it true that interest payments on the UK’s national debt are equivalent to £240 per month for everyone in the country?

Reform UK claim that Afghan migrants are 22 times more likely to be convicted of sex offences. Is that number correct?

We try to make sense of a claim that one in 10 women are being driven to leave work by their menopause symptoms.

And we investigate a claim comparing the speed of a snail and the war in Ukraine.

If you’ve seen a number you think we should look at, email the team: moreorless@bbc.co.uk

Presenter: Tim Harford
Reporter: Lizzy McNeill
Producer: Nicholas Barrett
Series producer: Tom Colls
Production co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele
Sound mix: James Beard
Editor: Richard Vadon

Are Afghan nationals more likely to be convicted of sexual offences?

On 27 December 2024, astronomers spotted an asteroid that was potentially heading towards earth.
 
Named 2024 YR4, it was estimated to be between 40m and 90m across, with the potential to cause massive damage if it hit a populated area of the planet.

The chances of that happening, however, seemed to fluctuate significantly - ranging from 1% to a peak of 3%, before falling to virtually zero. 

Tim Harford investigates what was going on, with the help of Davide Farnocchia, a navigation engineer at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory.

Presenter: Tim Harford
Producer: Lizzy McNeill
Series producer: Tom Colls
Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown
Sound Mix: Hal Haines
Editor: Richard Vadon

What are the chances of an asteroid hitting earth in 2032?

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