Rational Security

Rational Security

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- The Lawfare Institute

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osa: 553
Keskmine kestus: 1 h 16 min
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Kategooria: Teadmiskirjandus

A weekly discussion of national security and foreign policy matters hosted by Lawfare Senior Editor Scott R. Anderson. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Episodes

The "Off the Rails" EditionThis week, Scott was joined by Lawfare Managing Editor Tyler McBrien, Lawfare Senior Editor Molly Roberts, and University of Virginia Professor of Law Paul Stephan to talk through the week’s big news in national security, including: • “Textual Healing.” On Friday, a 6-3 Supreme Court majority brought an end to at least the current iteration of President Trump’s controversial tariff policies, ruling that language in the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (or IEEPA) authorizing the “regulation of…importation” doesn’t include the authority to impose tariffs. That said, President Trump himself has already indicated that he intends to reinstate many of the tariffs he had installed using IEEPA under other statutory authorities. How big a setback is this for the Trump administration’s trade policies? And what might it mean for other aspects of its policy agenda? • “Mayhem in Mexico.” Over the weekend, an elite unit of the Mexican army killed one of the country’s most powerful drug kingpins, Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, also known as “El Mencho.” His syndicate, the Jalisco New Generation Cartel, immediately retaliated, through attacks on Mexican security forces, roadblocks throughout the country, and other measures intended to terrorize the public, particularly in areas frequented by American and Western tourists. The decision to move against El Mencho followed an intense pressure campaign by the Trump administration, which has pushed Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum to take a hard stand against the cartels. Should this be seen as a win for the Trump administration? Or Sheinbaum? And what could the long-term implications be for the U.S.-Mexico relationship? • “Clap if You Believe.” On Tuesday, President Trump delivered his annual State of the Union address, the longest of its kind. Many had braced for a contentious speech, expecting Trump to ridicule the justices seated in front of him and potentially even announce strikes on Iran. But Trump appeared to pull his punches on both of those fronts—he instead saved his harshest words for congressional Democrats and focused on laying out a rose-colored picture of the state of the country. How effective was Trump’s speech? And what does it tell us about the current state of his second presidency? In object lessons, Tyler just has this strange sense that you will enjoy the Otherworld podcast. Molly (and her dog) find comfort in the soft, squishy claws of Cthulhu. Scott eased his travel woes with a twist on the Vieux Carre at Birch & Bloom in Charlottesville. And Paul mixed his object lesson with three parts: Peter Suderman’s Cocktails if you’re into all things shaken and stirred; Mark Galeotti's podcast, In Moscow’s Shadow, if you’re into all things Russia-related; and Dan Wang’s New York Times Best Seller book, “Breakneck,” if you’re into all things China-related. To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
553|1 h 16 min
The “Sects, Lies, and Twin Peaks” EditionThis week, Scott sat down with his foreign-policy-minded colleagues Daniel Byman, Michael Feinberg, and Ari Tabatabai to talk through some recent big news stories around the world, including: • “Beer Hall Push-back.” Over the weekend, a raft of bipartisan U.S. and European officials headed to Bavaria for the annual Munich Security Conference. Last year, Vice President J.D. Vance gave a barnburner of a speech, accusing European allies of restraining free speech and giving succor to the European far right. This year, Secretary of State Marco Rubio gave a more conciliatory set of remarks that nonetheless signaled that there were some fundamental changes happening in the relationship. For their part, European leaders mostly seemed to be on board with that as they increasingly leaned into the public stance that it was time for the continent to stand on its own, independent of the United States, although how feasible that will be and on what timeline remain the big questions. What should we make of the different remarks we heard from the conference and the broader messages the two sides are sending to each other? And is this a sign of an impending divorce or a different sort of shift in the U.S.-European transatlantic relationship? • “Rial Talk.” American and Iranian officials met again this week in Geneva to negotiate an end to the Islamic Republic’s nuclear weapons program in exchange for an easing or elimination of U.S. sanctions on Iran. The negotiations took place amidst continued saber rattling by both President Trump and Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who threatened in a speech ahead of the talks to sink U.S. warships in the region if Iran came under attack. Nonetheless, some participants in the negotiations—particularly the mediators from Oman—seemed optimistic that the two sides were getting closer to some sort of common understanding about how they might move forward. But U.S. military assets are continuing to accumulate in the region, leading some to conclude that a military operation may yet be on the horizon. Is there space for a deal? Or iare we going to see another war in Iran? • “Xi Who Must Not Be Named.” A year in, the second Trump administration has not proven to be the China hawk that many expected. Far from drawing a hard line on all things China as the first Trump administration often seemed to do, U.S. officials have instead been surprisingly quiet and conciliatory in regard to China, at least outside the trade context. This has remained true even as reports have emerged of Xi Jinping purging his military of non-loyalists, modernizing China’s nuclear arsenal, and building more submarines—all steps with the potential to significantly upset the balance of power in Asia and beyond. What is the real logic underlying the Trump administration's seemingly quixotic approach to China, and where might it lead the broader relationship between the two major powers? In object lessons, Dan is delighting in John Company, a social-climbing, backroom-dealing, hostile-bargaining board game to, you know, escape the harsh realities of the real world. Ari enthusiastically recommends the Broadway adaptation of Death Becomes Her, which somehow manages to be even quirkier than the original film. Scott has been sucked into the social media abyss by Jess and Quinn’s corny, absurdist, and pun-oriented humor. And Mike offers an anti-object-lesson warning: the “Poetry for Kids” series is not, in fact, reliably for kids. To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
552|1 h 17 min
The “Midnight Train to Ukraine” EditionThis week, Scott sat down with Editor in Chief Benjamin Wittes, who recently returned from Ukraine, and Lawfare’s Ukraine Fellow Anastasiia Lapatina, to go through the latest developments in that country, including: • “Cold War.” Russia’s ongoing winter campaign against Ukraine’s energy infrastructure has created a humanitarian crisis in many parts of the country. In Kyiv, at least one major power plant has been completely destroyed, and many more energy sites have been damaged. Numerous other parts of the country are without power and heating during a season when temperatures regularly dip below zero degrees Fahrenheit. What do these attacks show about the dynamics of the conflict? And what can be done to curb their effects? • “Stuck in the Sand.” U.S.-backed negotiations between Russia and Ukraine—which continued in Abu Dhabi this past week—remain at an impasse, without tangible progress other than a prisoner of war exchange that led to the release of 157 Ukrainians from Russian captivity. Russia continues to demand that Ukraine surrender a large swath of territory in its eastern Donbas region, which Kyiv says is a red line. Meanwhile, President Zelensky has suggested that the United States is pushing the sides to end the war by summer 2026 — perhaps because of the U.S. midterm elections set to take place shortly thereafter. What is the state of the negotiations at this point? Is this a reasonable expectation by the administration? Or are there any areas for potential agreement in the short or medium term? • “(P)eye in the Sky?”: The war in Ukraine is arguably the first to be fought in substantial part through drones. Not only has the conflict helped showcase the capabilities of drones, but it’s spurred rapid development in the technology behind them—and methods that might be used to defeat them. What did Ben learn about these technologies on his trip? And what can it tell us about the future of warfare? In object lessons, Ben departs from his signature dog shirts to shirts of a more subversive nature. Nastya pleads to the power of your inner light in helping the families of Kyiv who are suffering through the energy crisis. And Scott encourages you to keep reading and caring about the War in Ukraine. To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
551|1 h 21 min
“The Story of Three Warrants” EditionThis week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Molly Roberts, Michael Feinberg, and Troy Edwards to talk through the week’s big warrant-related national security news, including: • “Tulsi Went Down to Georgia, She Was Looking for a Vote to Steal.” This past week, the FBI executed a warrant to search Fulton County’s election center for ballots and equipment related to the 2020 election, with the help of an unlikely senior administration official: Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, who was reportedly there in-person at the order of President Trump. Observers are concerned that the search is the beginning of a broader effort to relitigate the 2020 election—especially as Trump calls for Republicans in Congress to “nationalize elections” in advance of the November mid-terms. What do we know about the legal basis for this search? And what does it tell us about what the Trump administration has planned for November? • “I Hear the Jury’s Still Out on the Fourth Amendment.” Over the past week, whistleblowers have revealed that ICE has issued a series of internal memos to agents advising that they do not need judicial warrants to detain or search the homes of people suspected of being undocumented immigrants. Instead, ICE has attempted to side-step the regular judicial process by suggesting that agents only need an administrative warrant, a controversial move that will almost certainly be challenged in court. What do we think of ICE’s decision to shift to such a legally dubious policy, and where do we expect it to go from here? • “Ex Post Justification.” Last month, the FBI conducted a search on the home of Washington Post reporter Hannah Natanson as part of an investigation into alleged leaks by a Defense Department contractor. During the search, agents seized Natanson’s personal and professional devices, which drew concern from media outlets and civil liberty groups over potential First Amendment and privacy violations. A magistrate judge has now ordered that the FBI cannot access Natanson’s materials at least for now, while some of these issues are litigated. How should federal law enforcement balance the need to conduct leak investigations with press freedoms? And is this case on the right side of the line? In object lessons, sometimes all you can do is cry: Molly is remembering better days for the Washington Post and mourning the fall of a once-great paper. Sometimes all you can do is get lost in the music: Mike is celebrating the still-great Miles Davis with the long-awaited release of The Complete Miles Davis Live at the Plugged Nickel 1965 on vinyl. Sometimes all you can do is laugh: Scott is delighting in his former State Department colleague’s new Substack, Ridiculocracy. And sometimes, all you can do is wear something fabulous: Troy is modeling the new wardrobe must-have for the “Government in Exile.” To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
550|1 h 22 min
The "Pawing at Scott" EditionThis week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Alan Rozenshtein, Eric Columbus, and Molly Roberts for a deep dive into two of the week’s big national security news stories: • “Slipping Down the Slope.” Last week’s killing of 37-year-old ICU nurse Alex Pretti by Border Patrol agents in Minneapolis, Minnesota, has triggered what increasingly appears to be a national backlash against the Trump administration’s immigration policies and ICE’s violent tactics. Republicans and Democrats alike have been increasingly public in their criticism of the administration’s actions—and, in particular, DHS Secretary Kristi Noem—while state officials have begun exploring more legal avenues for pushing back against federal officials. The Trump administration, meanwhile, may be shifting tack, as it has replaced Border Patrol commander-at-large Greg Bovino with immigration czar Tom Homan on the ground in Minneapolis and adopted a more conciliatory tone. Is this a real turning point for the Trump administration’s flagship policy? Or more of a feint? • “Now We’re Just Waiting on Artificial Strength, Dexterity, Wisdom, and Charisma.” Last week, the artificial intelligence company Anthropic released what it’s calling a “constitution” for its premier AI model, Claude. The constitution seeks to instill a moral framework, value system, and even a personality in the AI model, taking an unprecedented step in both private AI governance and AI personhood. How does Claude’s constitution factor into broader discussions about AI development and regulating how models should interact with users? In object lessons, Eric sticks to classic Rational Security orthodoxy by recommending an actual, physical object: his wife’s beloved migraine-slaying device, The Tingler. Alan flagrantly violates the show’s informal norms with a repeat recommendation—season 2 of The Night Manager (plus some unsolicited fawning over Tom Hiddleston). Scott, desperate for warmth, throws the rulebook into the fire with a double object lesson: 1) Metro’s Fire Snake to satisfy your basic human need for fire, and 2) long underwear to satisfy your base-layer needs. And Molly restores order with a hat that truly captures how we’re all feeling: America is in trouble, and we’re tired. To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
549|1 h 13 min
The “Just Chilling in My Padded Room” EditionThis week, Scott sat down with co-host emeritus Shane Harris and Lawfare colleagues Anna Bower and Loren Voss to talk through yet another big week in national security, including: • “Minnesota N(ICE).” Amidst ongoing tensions over the Trump administration’s hyper aggressive immigration enforcement tactics in Minnesota, the Justice Department has issued subpoenas to at least five state Democratic officials—including Governor Tim Walz—investigating alleged efforts to obstruct or not cooperate with federal efforts. Some say it’s an intimidation tactic; to others, it seems to be laying the foundation for an invocation of the Insurrection Act. What should we make of these most recent developments in Minnesota? • “Fed Up.” Last week, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell announced in a video that the Federal Reserve had received subpoenas from the Department of Justice as part of a criminal inquiry into his congressional testimony regarding cost overruns in the ongoing renovation of the Federal Reserve’s headquarters. Powell called out the probe as an effort to undermine the Fed’s independence, and both markets and members of Congress have had a negative response. And the Supreme Court may follow, as it’s set to hear oral arguments in the related case of Federal Reserve board member Lisa Cook, whom Trump had previously sought to fire “for cause” on the basis of similarly unproven criminal allegations. Why did the Trump administration take this step when it did? And how might it affect the outcome of the Cook case? • “The Sound and the Fury.” Recent media reports have revealed that the Department of Defense has spent at least a year testing a device that may have been the source of a mysterious illness that has affected U.S. diplomats and personnel stationed around the world since 2016. This revelation has inevitably called into question past intelligence community assessments that such symptoms were unlikely to be the result of actions by a hostile adversary and resurrected controversies around how affected U.S. personnel have been treated. What should we now make of the so-called Havana Syndrome? And how might these new revelations affect U.S. foreign relations? In object lessons, Anna is channeling her inner British spy with a recommendation of season 2 of The Night Manager. Loren is channeling some inner peace with a recommendation of the Snoo. Scott is changing the channel to the bizarre French animated comedy Grizzy & the Lemmings. And Shane is considering a style change a la Ted Danson in A Man on the Inside. To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
548|1 h 22 min
The “Scare Them When They’re Young” EditionThis week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Tyler McBrien, Michael Feinberg, and Ariane Tabatabai to talk through the week’s big news in national security, including: • “Between Iraq and a Hard Place.” Iran is engaged in perhaps its most serious bout of domestic unrest in a decade, spurred on by a failing economy and the seeming political weakness of the regime after its devastating military conflict with Israel and the United States this past summer. But the regime has struck back viciously, cutting off global media and communications access even as it has engaged in a vicious and violent campaign of repression that may have already led to as many as between 2,000 and 12,000 fatalities. That has led, among other things, to threats from the Trump administration that it may intervene militarily against the regime. What should we be making of this development? What does it mean for the future of Iran, and what role might the United States play in that future? • “A Slippery Slope.” ICE’s increasingly provocative immigration enforcement actions came to a violent head last week in Minneapolis, when ICE agent Jonathan Ross shot and killed driver and possible protest participant Renee Good. While the White House has sought to frame Good as a “domestic terrorist” who threatened Ross, videos of the incident instead suggest that her conduct came nowhere close to the standard normally required for the use of lethal force. The FBI is now reportedly investigating Good’s widow for ties to activist groups, an effort that led several career federal prosecutors to quit this week. How effective are the administration’s attempts to shape the truth likely to prove? • “Green with Envy.” Diplomatic representatives from Denmark and Greenland are meeting with senior administration officials as we record to discuss a way forward on Greenland, the self-governing and all-but-independent Danish territory that President Trump has openly coveted since returning to office, up to and including the threat of military force to acquire it. How serious should the world take these threats? Where is the competition over Greenland likely to lead? In object lessons, Tyler is setting the mood with a recommendation of Way Dynamic’s album “Massive Shoe.” Mike is boosting our moods with a preview of “One Movie After Another,” a retrospective of Paul Thomas Anderson films, coming soon to the AFI Silver Theatre in Silver Spring. Scott is setting some mood lighting with his Xenomorph-like bedtime reading light from Glocusent. And Ari is getting moody with a revisit of Pedro Almodóvar’s “Pain and Glory.” To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
547|1 h 17 min
The “Caracas Like a Hurricane” Special Venezuela EditionThis week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Benjamin Wittes, Natalie Orpett, and Molly Roberts for a special deep-dive into the intervention in Venezuela, including: • “A Hop, Skip, and Jump Across the Rubicon.” This past weekend, the Trump administration took the step that Trump has been threatening for months: he deployed special operations to capture Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro and bring him to the United States for criminal prosecution. The targeted operation was only hours long and resulted in no American fatalities, though more than 70 people in Venezuela were reportedly killed. The Trump administration has described it as a “law enforcement” operation. But what was it really? And where did he get the authority to do it? • “A Truly Extraordinary Rendition.” By Monday, Maduro and his wife were in New York being arraigned on an array of drug- and weapons-related conspiracy charges. But prosecuting a head of state—albeit one not recognized by the United States—presents certain unique challenges. How should we expect the criminal case to proceed? • “Running in Place.” President Trump has asserted that he and his advisers are now going to “run” Venezuela. But he’s left Maduro’s deputy, Delcy Rodríguez, in place, in lieu of the opposition movement the United States and many other countries have recognized as Venezuela’s legitimate government. Trump and his advisers seem intent on dictating terms to Venezuela through the “leverage” provided them by the ongoing quarantine over Venezuela’s oil, and potentially the threat of additional military action. But can this light-touch strategy succeed? In object lessons, (notably Chicagoan) Natalie delights in her long-standing admiration of The New Yorker with Netflix’s documentary “The New Yorker at 100.” Molly approaches Trump’s takeover of D.C. golf courses with a pitch for Knotty by Nature’s wooden putters. Scott honors the 5th anniversary of the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol with a recommendation of Ellie Silverman’s moving profile of Nathan Tate in the Washington Post. And Ben honors the same anniversary with both a revisiting of Lawfare's narrative podcast series The Aftermath, and, relatedly, a surprise interview by Holly Berkley Fletcher with one of the attack’s most infamous perpetrators. To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
546|1 h 5 min
The “Inadequate Chicken Moved to Inferior Location” Special End-of-Year EditionFor the podcast’s annual end-of-year episode, Scott sat down with co-host emeritus Benjamin Wittes, Senior Editor Anna Bower, and Managing Editor Tyler McBrien to talk over listener-submitted topics and object lessons, including: • Which sphere of influence is Western Europe in today? • What should we make of President Trump's lawsuit against BBC? • After nearly a year of the Trump Administration, how do you view the record of Attorney General Merrick Garland? • What does the military campaign against alleged narcotics traffickers tell us about checks and balances within the U.S. system around the use of military force (or lack thereof)? • With the escalating rhetoric in the Caribbean, what lessons should we be keeping in mind from the lead-up to the Iraq War? • What can be done to reverse Americans' tolerance for the slide towards illiberal democracy? • And importantly, is Ben's martial arts challenge to Putin still on? For object lessons, our listeners really came through! Blake recommends a couple of coffee table books right up Tyler’s alley: “Building Stories” by Alastair Philip Wiper and "Closure: The Final Days of the Waterford Bicycle Factory" by Tucker and Anna Schwinn. Keenan points out a good companion listen to this podcast in NPR’s Sources and Methods. Liz really embraces the variety show that is “object lessons,” introducing us to Danylo Yavhusishyn—a.k.a., Aonishiki—a Ukrainian-born sumo wrestler, hyping Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 as her Game of the Year, waxing poetic about The Sun Eater book series, and log-rolling her work on the Final Fantasy TCG. Speaking of variety shows, Lisa spotlights the Live from New York: The Lorne Michaels Collection exhibition at UT Austin’s Harry Ransom Center. And Riley asks the crew about their top fiction recommendations for 2026. Tune in to find out what they are! And thank goodness, that’s it for 2025! But don’t worry, Rational Security and the whole Lawfare team will be back with you in the new year to help make sense of what’s to come in national security in 2026! To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
545|1 h 4 min
The “Chestbursters Roasting on an Open Fire” EditionThis week, Scott down with his Lawfare colleagues Alan Rozenshtein and Ari Tabatabai to talk through a few of the week’s big national security news stories, including: • “Once You Pop, You Can’t Stop.” The Trump administration has given a green light to Nvidia to export its powerful H200 chips to China, opening a potentially significant new market while jumpstarting China’s strategically significant AI industry—or, perhaps, making it reliant on U.S. technology. What explains this decision? And how does it align with the Trump administration’s broader reframing of strategic competition with China as a primarily economic problem, as reflected in its recent National Security Strategy? • “Lavatories of Democracy.” Late last week, President Trump signed an executive order setting up a number of mechanisms intended to assert federal preemption over and otherwise deter state efforts to regulate the development and use of AI—an executive branch-only effort that followed a failed push to insert a related legislative provision into year-end omnibus legislation. How effective is this measure likely to be? And how wise is it to try and bar the states from regulating AI development and use in the first place? • “Some Things You Can’t Make Light Of.” Over the weekend, a pair of gunmen inspired by the Islamic State executed a brutal massacre at a Hanukkah event on Australia’s Bondi Beach, killing 15 people and injuring 40. The violence has shocked Australia, a country with strict gun control laws where incidents of anti-semitism have been on the rise, as in much of the world. What is there to learn from the attack and its aftermath? And what could its ramifications be, both in Australia and further abroad? In object lessons, Alan tells us what the buzz is—seeing Jesus Christ Superstar live. Scott, heavy with Christmas spirit, shares his grandmother’s recipe for sour cream coffee cake (remember, during the holidays, dense=delicious). And Ari keeps us grounded with a recommendation of “Don’t Let’s Go To the Dogs Tonight,” a South African film about a White Zimbabwean family following the Rhodesian Bush War. Rational Security will be having its traditional end-of-year episode later this month, which will focus on listener-submitted topics and object lessons! If you have topics you want us to discuss and object lessons you want to share—whether serious or frivolous—be sure to send them to rationalsecurity@lawfaremedia.org by Dec. 21! To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
544|1 h 23 min

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