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Blockworks

A daily analysis of macroeconomics, bitcoin, geopolitics and big picture power shifts, hosted by Nathaniel Whittemore @nlw. The Breakdown is part of Blockworks.

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The Breakdown

Congress has officially kicked the crypto market structure bill into 2026, a move that surprises no one but still carries real risk as negotiations drag into an election year shaped by shutdown fights, midterms, and deep partisan disagreements over ethics, DeFi compliance, and stablecoin yields. Despite the delay, momentum hasn’t fully died, with ongoing talks, a draft still to come, and the possibility that industry lobbying dynamics could shift the calculus next year. Meanwhile, regulators aren’t waiting: the FDIC is moving quickly on rules that would allow banks to issue stablecoins under a clear framework, Tether is backing a bid to bring USDT to the Lightning Network, and tensions inside DeFi are boiling over as DAO token holders confront the limits of governance and ownership in a world where TradFi is arriving on-chain.

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Crypto Market Structure Slips to 2026

Bitcoin takes another sharp leg down, wiping out leveraged longs and pushing market sentiment firmly into the anger phase of this bear market. Thin liquidity, failed dip-buying on leverage, and continued whale selling are making a durable bottom hard to form, even as smaller wallets continue to accumulate. Macro pressure from a hawkish Fed, year-end risk aversion, and broader market unease are weighing on prices, while MicroStrategy’s latest Bitcoin buys fail to spark a rally. Still, a more constructive regulatory tone from the SEC on crypto privacy stands out as a rare bright spot amid otherwise gloomy market conditions.

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Bitcoin Slides Again as Anger Takes Over the Bear Market

Today’s episode breaks down a landmark moment for tokenization as the Depository Trust Company receives SEC approval to begin putting US public market securities on chain. The discussion covers what the no-action letter allows, why DTCC’s role matters, how this could enable 24/7 settlement and programmable assets for stocks, ETFs, and Treasuries, and why this move represents the most credible path yet toward decentralized capital markets. The episode also examines parallel developments from Coinbase, JPMorgan, and Tether, and why tokenization may transform market structure even if it doesn’t immediately boost crypto token prices.

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DTCC Puts US Securities On Chain

This Friday Five breaks down a pivotal Fed meeting marked by rare open dissent that signals a splintered FOMC and a far more politicized, harder-to-read monetary path into 2026, including what the new liquidity program really means for markets. The episode then turns to Washington, where the crypto market structure bill remains stuck in a late-year quagmire over DeFi AML rules and stablecoin yield, before digging into why markets appear finished with Bitcoin treasury companies after a high-profile debut flopped. It closes with a sober trimming of year-end Bitcoin bull cases and the sentencing of Do Kwon, a moment that feels like the final punctuation mark on the last crypto cycle.

The Five Most Important Stories in Crypto Last Week

Today’s episode breaks down one of the most contentious FOMC meetings in nearly a decade. A deeply divided Fed delivered a rate cut that may also mark the end of the cutting cycle, with multiple dissents on both the dovish and hawkish sides and an unusually fractured dot plot. The conversation explores what the dissents reveal about competing inflation and labor-market risks, why Powell says the Fed is effectively flying blind without fresh BLS data, and how alternative data is shaping the debate. It also examines the quiet but significant shift in balance-sheet policy, as the Fed ends QT and begins reserve management purchases that many see as “QE that isn’t QE,” and what this hawkish cut, baby QE, and a broken consensus mean for markets heading into an increasingly uncertain 2026 outlook.

The Fed Is Fracturing

Today’s episode breaks down the rough NYSE debut of 21 Capital, whose immediate drop suggests markets are no longer willing to award premiums to companies whose only model is selling shares to buy more Bitcoin. The discussion examines why treasury firms are being valued at 1x, what 21’s attempt to build real Bitcoin-based businesses signals about the future of the category, and how shifting analyst frameworks—from Standard Chartered’s recalibration to institutional-flow–driven models—reflect a maturing market that now demands execution, not narrative.

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Bitcoin Treasury Honeymoon Ends

Today’s episode examines Washington’s increasingly public admission that the market-structure bill is stuck, with key senators signaling that negotiations have become frustrating and unlikely to resolve this year. From there the focus turns to MicroStrategy’s return to large-scale Bitcoin purchases, the funding mechanics behind it, and the growing debate over whether the company is executing long-term strategy or edging into risk.

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MicroStrategy’s Big Buy Raises New Questions

A crypto regulatory update looking at why the long-promised market structure bill is likely slipping into next year as negotiators get bogged down in stablecoin yield, conflict-of-interest language, and the thorny problem of DeFi. The episode also covers the SEC’s increasingly sharp divide with TradFi over tokenization rules and a surprising bit of good news from the CFTC on approved spot markets, setting the stage for a pivotal regulatory year ahead. Headlines at the end.

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Crypto Regulation Hits a DeFi Wall

This Friday 5 runs through a week defined by Larry Fink’s renewed tokenization push, MicroStrategy’s move to eliminate default risk, major wealth platforms finally opening their doors to Bitcoin, and a macro backdrop where liquidity interventions are starting to matter again. It all culminates in a price week that didn’t resolve the bear case but made the conversation far more interesting, with volatility returning even if direction hasn’t. Headlines include: BlackRock’s policy-facing tokenization thesis, MicroStrategy’s $1.4B buffer, Vanguard and Bank of America shifting access, and the Fed’s early signals on easing.

The 5 Most Important Stories in Crypto Last Week

Larry Fink and Brian Armstrong hit the DealBook Summit with a message that couldn’t be clearer: crypto is now a mainstream financial conversation, not a curiosity. Their joint interview laid out Bitcoin’s purpose, tokenization’s inevitability, and why banks racing toward stablecoins signal a structural shift—not a passing cycle. Plus: MicroStrategy fights for MSCI inclusion, Japan prepares a major crypto-tax cut, and new data shows Bitcoin settling trillions as it cements itself as global financial plumbing. One sentence on the headlines at the end.

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Fink, Armstrong, and the DealBook Turning Point

NLW aggregates a dozen plus end of year reports to come up with 10 consensus crypto predictions for 2024. Here's part 1! 
Today's Sponsor: Kraken
Kraken: See what crypto can be - https://kraken.com/TheBreakdown
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10 Crypto Predictions for 2024 [Part 1]

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