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Bloomberg


The Credit Edge reviews the top credit news of the week and looks at the week ahead, with in-depth research of the most important corporate sectors, trends and themes. Analysis of specific corporate bonds and credit default swaps is backed by Bloomberg Intelligence's robust data sets and indexes.


The Credit Edge by Bloomberg Intelligence

KKR is looking to Europe and Japan for yield as US debt spreads grind tighter. “Investors are very focused on relative value in a market where there’s not a lot,” Tal Reback, global investment strategist for the firm’s credit and markets business, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s David Havens in this episode of the Credit Edge podcast. “In general, investors are much more intrigued about how to diversify geographically,” she adds. They also discuss what KKR thinks could be a $1 trillion European asset-backed debt opportunity, private credit default risk, valuations of direct loans, sector bets and business development companies.

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KKR Is Hunting for Yield in European and Japanese Credit Markets

The technology-funding frenzy could become a bust for credit markets if AI falls short of lofty expectations, according to Barclays. “If we get to a point where we see a lot of this issuance coming to the market — and then there’s some changes, where maybe certain things are a little bit less viable or a little bit less attractive — that leads to some downside risks,” Brad Rogoff, the firm’s global head of research, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Mike Campellone in the latest Credit Edge podcast. They also discuss “late-cycle” behavior, private-debt risk, asset-based finance and portfolio trades, as well as Barclays’ 2026 forecasts for credit spreads, defaults and global issuance.

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Barclays’ Rogoff Sees Risk of AI Bust as Debt Issuance Ramps Up

Global investors are looking more at European private credit as US returns get squeezed, according to London-based hedge fund Arini. “They want to focus on a place where they think there’s rule of law, where they think there’s opportunity set — and that’s really been Europe,” Mathew Cestar, the firm’s president, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Stephane Kovatchev in the latest Credit Edge podcast. Europe pays about 50 basis points more on private loans than the US to compensate for its relative complexity, says Cestar, who leads the Arini’s direct lending business. The firm generates additional spread by focusing on middle-market, non-sponsor deals across the continent. Cestar also discusses credit agreements, defaults, the potential for investment in defense and where by country and sector he sees the best opportunity.

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Arini Says European Private Credit Has the Edge Over US Market

Vanguard Group, the world’s second-largest money manager, is wary of junk bonds given how expensive they’ve become. “Where the market is today doesn’t leave a lot of room for negative surprises,” Michael Chang, head of high-yield corporate credit at the $11 trillion asset manager, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Matthew Geudtner in the latest Credit Edge podcast. “Spreads are pretty tight, yields are about average — it’s not the best time to be investing in high yield,” Chang says. They also discuss Vanguard’s preference for debt from utilities and consumer staples companies, how to get extra yield from leveraged loans and how to profit from liability-management exercises.

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Vanguard Says Junk Bond Pricing Leaves Little Room for Negative Surprises

Lack of discipline is a concern for credit markets as investors rush to fund artificial intelligence, according to Oaktree Capital Management. “Just how much money is chasing deals — I think you need to be mindful of that,” Danielle Poli, a portfolio manager for the firm’s global credit strategy, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Phil Brendel in the latest Credit Edge podcast. “What stands out is that anything with AI is just getting done,” Poli added. “A lot of the excess we’re seeing is in that space.” They also discuss where to find better returns in collateralized loan obligations, real estate debt, strategies for busted convertibles, private market relative value and opportunities in Europe.
 
 

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Oaktree Worries About Lack of Discipline in Rush to Fund AI

Credit investors should be careful about participating in the artificial intelligence boom, according to DoubleLine Capital. “You have to be not only cautious about the tech sector, but the tangential related sectors that are providing support for these new projects,” Robert Cohen, the firm’s director of global developed credit, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Robert Schiffman in the latest Credit Edge podcast. “Who knows what the spillover will be if the music stops?” Cohen added. They also discuss compressed returns in private debt markets, commercial mortgage-backed securities, how to invest in corporate bonds by duration, rating and sector — plus the outlook for 2026.

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DoubleLine Is Ringing Alarm Bells on the AI Debt Funding Bonanza

Investors are too sanguine after shrugging off recent debt-market distress, according to Crossmark Global Investments. “My key concern is the complacency,” Victoria Fernandez, the firm’s chief market strategist, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Jean-Yves Coupin in the latest episode of the Credit Edge podcast. “Jamie Dimon talks about the cockroaches, but the investors don’t seem to care,” Fernandez says. They also discuss opportunity and risk in the build-out of AI infrastructure, health-care bond spreads, private credit troubles and the performance of values-based investments.

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Crossmark Says Investors Are Too Complacent About Market Risks

Corporate collapse and allegations of fraud hog the headlines, but a slumping US economy is much more troubling for debt markets, according to Monarch Alternative Capital. “There are large portions of the economy that are hurting,” Adam Sklar, the firm’s co-chief investment officer, tells Bloomberg News’ Irene Garcia Perez and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Negisa Balluku in the latest Credit Edge podcast. “That is a more notable element to the corporate-credit story right now than super-loose underwriting or fraud,” Sklar says. They also discuss private credit stress, opportunity in auto, chemicals and packaging debt and risks to software companies.

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Monarch Sees Bigger Hazard Than Fraud

Private credit is better placed than public to avoid blowups being seen in liquid debt, according to Ares Management Corp. “The level and amount of work you can do from a diligence standpoint is dramatically more extensive,” Joel Holsinger, partner and co-head of alternative credit at the company, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s David Havens in the latest Credit Edge podcast. “There probably would have been more ability to do some of the work to unearth some of the stuff that has been alleged,” he adds, referring to recent bankruptcies of First Brands and Tricolor. They also discuss significant risk transfers, data-center lending, fund and asset-based finance, as well as philanthropy.

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Ares Says Private Lenders Are Better Placed Than Public to Avoid Pain

More highly indebted companies will slip into distress as the US economy slows and earnings suffer, according to Aegon Asset Management. “I am bracing for a little more trouble ahead,” Jim Schaeffer, the $380 billion manager’s global head of leveraged finance, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Julie Hung in the latest Credit Edge podcast. “We’re starting to see more and more companies just hitting a wall,” he adds. They also discuss the third-quarter earnings outlook, opportunities in structured finance, how to invest in the debt of beer and food companies, as well as private credit hazards.

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Aegon Is Worried About Junk-Debt Blowups

As rates stay high, bank lenders retreat and volatility rises, Gramercy Funds Management sees significant growth in private credit to developing nations. “We’re just scratching the surface in emerging markets,” said Robert Koenigsberger, the firm’s founder, chief investment officer and managing partner, referring to private debt. “It’s really exciting to go deeper and broader in EM as an asset class with the tools that have proven to work already,” he tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Tolu Alamutu, in the latest Credit Edge podcast. Koenigsberger and Alamutu also discuss EM private debt returns, default risks, real estate investment strategies, US tariffs and trade policy, as well as recent deals in Mexico and Turkey.

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Gramercy Says Private Is Way to Go in Emerging Markets

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