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Astu lugude lõputusse maailma

Loe ja kuula

Todd T. De Voe

This podcast features strategies and advice from today’s leaders and experts in emergency management. Its purpose is to empower and enrich current and future leaders. 

emnetwork.substack.com

The Emergency Management Network Podcast

The Emergency Management Network Podcast

The Books That Belong on Your Bookshelf

Hosts: Todd T. DeVoe and Dan ScottFormat: Conversational, reflective, practitioner-focusedEpisode Theme: The books that shape how emergency managers think, not just how they check boxes

Episode Description

Emergency management isn’t mastered through binders alone. It’s shaped by the ideas we return to when plans fall short, and judgment takes over. In this episode, Todd DeVoe and Dan Scott step away from the news cycle and into something more enduring: the books every emergency manager should have within arm’s reach.

This is not a “top ten list” or a graduate syllabus. It’s a conversation about foundations, leadership under pressure, community resilience, and the philosophical frameworks that quietly influence how we make decisions when the stakes are high.

If you’ve ever asked yourself why you lead the way you do in crisis, this episode starts answering that question.

Key Discussion Segments

1. The Foundations of Emergency Management

The books that explain how the system works, why it evolved the way it did, and where the seams begin to show under stress.

* Introduction to Emergency Management

* Emergency Management: Principles and Practice

* Disaster Response and Recovery

Todd and Dan discuss why these texts matter long after certification exams are over, and how they provide a shared professional language across jurisdictions and disciplines.

2. Leadership When the Plan Runs Out

Disasters don’t test paperwork; they test people.

* Leadership in Disaster

* The Unthinkable

* Extreme Ownership

The conversation explores accountability, decision-making under uncertainty, and why understanding human behavior is just as critical as understanding ICS.

3. Community, Recovery, and Resilience

Why recovery is social before it is structural.

* Building Resilience

* Resilience Thinking

Dan and Todd unpack how social capital, trust, and networks often determine recovery outcomes more than funding formulas or infrastructure alone.

4. Philosophy for Emergency Managers

The quiet influences behind calm leadership and ethical decision-making.

* Meditations

* The Obstacle Is the Way

* Man’s Search for Meaning

Todd reflects on why philosophy belongs in the EOC and how these works help leaders remain grounded during prolonged, high-stress events.

Why This Episode Matters

Emergency management is a profession of ambiguity. When checklists end, books help shape judgment. This episode challenges listeners to think about their own professional bookshelf and ask what ideas they are carrying into the next crisis.

Listener Takeaways

* Why foundational texts still matter for seasoned practitioners

* How leadership books outside EM sharpen emergency decision-making

* The role of philosophy in crisis leadership and resilience

* What your bookshelf says about how you approach uncertainty

Next Episode 

What books should emergency managers stop relying on?In the next episode, Todd and Dan take on outdated thinking, legacy doctrine, and why some “classics” may quietly undermine modern preparedness.

 

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit emnetwork.substack.com/subscribe

The Books That Belong on Your Bookshelf

The episode articulates the significant impact of a potent Pacific storm train, which continues to target the western region of the United States, particularly California and Washington. We delve into the widespread flood watches issued by the National Weather Service, affecting vast areas along the California coast and valleys, alongside heavy snowfall in the Sierra Nevada, which complicates mountainous travel. Additionally, we address the winter storm warning currently in effect for the Washington Cascades, where hazardous conditions prevail due to blowing snow. Our discussion further encompasses the emergency declaration approved by FEMA for Montana, aimed at providing federal support in response to recent flooding incidents. We conclude by emphasizing the need for vigilance and safety amidst these challenging weather conditions, while we continue to monitor ongoing developments across various states. A comprehensive examination of the ongoing meteorological conditions reveals a formidable Pacific storm train currently imposing significant weather events across the western regions of the United States. The National Weather Service has issued widespread flood watches encompassing much of California’s coastal and valley areas, while simultaneously, heavy snowfall is complicating travel through the Sierra Nevada mountains. This duality of weather phenomena underscores the potential for both flooding and treacherous travel conditions, particularly in the context of the Sierra, where snow accumulation is exacerbating the risks associated with winter travel. Further north, the Washington Cascades are under a winter storm warning, highlighting hazardous conditions including blowing snow and limited visibility, which pose serious risks to both residents and travelers alike. As we navigate through these intense weather patterns, it is imperative to remain vigilant and informed, as river flood warnings persist in various basins, reflecting the substantial impact these storms are having on local ecosystems and communities alike.

Takeaways:

* The National Weather Service has issued widespread flood watches across California’s coastal regions and valleys.

* A potent Pacific storm is currently affecting the West, leading to hazardous weather conditions.

* FEMA has approved an emergency declaration for Montana in light of recent flooding incidents.

* Winter storm warnings are in effect for the Washington Cascades, indicating severe weather challenges ahead.

* Flood warnings persist on several rivers, including the Skokomish, indicating ongoing minor flooding issues.

* Minnesota is experiencing icy road conditions due to overnight freezing rain, affecting travel safety.

Sources

[FEMA | https://www.fema.gov/press-release/20251220/president-donald-j-trump-approves-emergency-declaration-montana]

[NWS San Diego | https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=usa&wwa=flood+watch]

[NWS Bay Area | https://www.weather.gov/mtr/]

[NWS Sacramento | https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?product1=Flood+Watch&warnzone=CAZ066]

[NWS Eureka (Eel River) | https://www.weather.gov/eka/]

[NWS Seattle | https://www.weather.gov/sew/]

[NWS Warning Text | https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=sew&wwa=winter+storm+warning]

[NWS River Warning | https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=usa&wwa=flood+warning]

[NWS Medford | https://www.weather.gov/mfr/]

[NWS Advisory Timing | https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=43.1787&lon=-122.1389]

[NWS Spokane | https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?firewxzone=IDZ101&product1=Winter+Weather+Advisory]

[Montana Governor | https://gov.mt.gov/Documents/GovernorsOffice/executiveorders/View?doc=EO112025DisasterDeclarationStatewideSevereWindEvent002.pdf]

[NWS Missoula | https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=usa&wwa=winter+weather+advisory]

[NWS Fairbanks | https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=usa&wwa=winter+weather+advisory]

[MnDOT 511 | https://511mn.org/list/events]

[MPR News | https://www.mprnews.org/story/2025/12/22/road-conditions-icy-schools-delayed-in-southern-minnesota]
 

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit emnetwork.substack.com/subscribe

Emergency Declarations and Weather Warnings: A Comprehensive Overview

A powerful coast-to-coast storm continues to traverse the eastern United States, bringing with it a myriad of severe weather conditions. The National Weather Service has issued flood watches and river flood warnings for western Washington and northwest Oregon, while high winds affect the Northern Rockies and High Plains. As we delve into the specifics of this storm’s impact, we will also discuss the emergence of lake effect snow and the potential for flash freeze slick spots downwind of the Great Lakes. Furthermore, wind advisories are in effect for parts of the Mid Atlantic as the cold front advances offshore. We will also address seismic activity, noting several small to moderate earthquakes recorded off the coast of Alaska without significant damage reported. Join us as we explore these weather phenomena and their implications for various states across the nation. The latest briefing commences with a comprehensive overview of the meteorological conditions affecting the United States on December 19th, 2025. A formidable coast-to-coast storm is currently traversing the nation, prompting the National Weather Service (NWS) to issue flood watches and river flood warnings across western Washington and northwest Oregon. In addition, high winds are impacting the Northern Rockies and the High Plains, creating perilous travel conditions and potential hazards for local populations. Furthermore, the Great Lakes region is experiencing lake effect snow and flash freeze conditions, leading to dangerous slick spots that may exacerbate the challenges faced by commuters.

Takeaways:

* Today, a powerful coast to coast storm continues to move eastward across the nation, bringing severe weather.

* The National Weather Service has issued flood watches and river flood warnings for western Washington and northwest Oregon.

* High wind warnings have been issued for the Pribilof Islands with gusts reaching 75-80 mph, creating hazardous conditions.

* Dense fog is present in California’s Central Valley, reducing visibility significantly and causing travel delays.

* In Michigan, winter weather advisories remain in effect, predicting additional lake effect snow along the Lake Michigan shore.

* Oregon faces ongoing flood warnings as an atmospheric river approaches, increasing the risk of landslides and flooding.

Sources

[NWS Anchorage overview & warnings | https://www.weather.gov/afc]

[NWS AFC High Wind pages | https://www.weather.gov/afc/HighWindWarningPribilofs , https://www.weather.gov/afc/HighWindBeringStormReview]

[NWS Hanford — Dense Fog Advisory & hazards | https://www.weather.gov/hnx/]

[Caltrans QuickMap travel info | https://quickmap.dot.ca.gov]

[NWS Baltimore/Washington — Wind Advisory & HWO | https://www.weather.gov/lwx/ https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=MDZ013&product1=Wind+Advisory]

[Washington Post Capital Weather Gang live updates | https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2025/12/19/dc-weather-live-updates-stormy-windy/]

[NWS Grand Rapids advisory summary | https://www.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=grr&wwa=all]

[NWS Detroit/Pontiac HWO & gales | https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?issuedby=DTX&product=HWO&site=NWS , https://www.weather.gov/dtx/]

[FEMA—Branch County flood maps meeting | https://www.fema.gov/press-release/branch-county-residents-invited-review-flood-maps]

[NWS Billings hazards | https://www.weather.gov/byz/]

[NWS statewide wind hazards page | https://www.weather.gov/byz/montana_statewide_information]

[NWS Buffalo advisories & marine gales | https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=PAZ001&product1=Lake+Effect+Snow+Warning, https://www.weather.gov/buf/BUFHWOBUF]

[WBEN/Audacy local briefing | https://www.audacy.com/wben/news/weather/strong-winds-falling-temps-and-rain-transitions-to-snow]

[NWS Portland—flood warnings & watches | https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?product1=Flood+Warning&warnzone=ORZ111 https://www.weather.gov/pqr/]

[OPB regional forecast update | https://www.opb.org/article/2025/12/18/atmospheric-river-flooding-oregon-washington-weather-forecast/]

[NWS Seattle—Flood Warnings/Watch text | https://www.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=sew&wwa=all]

[NWS Seattle office dashboard | https://www.weather.gov/sew/]

[NWS Cheyenne—High Wind Warning text & local page | https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=cys&wwa=high+wind+warning , https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?textField1=41.1454&textField2=-104.792]

[Cowboy State Daily regional brief | https://cowboystatedaily.com/2025/12/18/don-days-wyoming-weather-forecast-friday-december-19-2025/]
 

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit emnetwork.substack.com/subscribe

The Impact of Extreme Weather: Insights from the EM Morning Brief

The primary focus of today’s discussion centers on the severe weather conditions currently impacting the Pacific Northwest and surrounding regions. A high-impact Pacific storm is delivering substantial rainfall, strong winds, and snowfall across various areas, raising significant concerns about flooding and hazardous travel conditions. As we navigate through the complexities of this weather event, it is imperative to recognize the ongoing flood warnings, winter hazards, and the risks posed by blizzard conditions in states such as North Dakota and Montana. Furthermore, we shall highlight the critical situation in Washington, where record flooding has necessitated numerous rescues and evacuations. We will continue to monitor these developments closely as we provide updates on the evolving weather patterns and their implications.

The recent episode of our podcast delves into the multifaceted impacts of a powerful Pacific storm currently affecting the western United States, particularly in Washington and Oregon. Our discussion begins with a detailed analysis of the meteorological phenomena at play, including the significant precipitation and high winds that have resulted in severe flooding across these regions. We examine the National Weather Service’s ongoing flood warnings and advisories, which highlight the urgency of the situation as urban flooding and hazardous conditions threaten the safety and well-being of residents. Furthermore, we explore the implications of saturated soils, which have led to widespread power outages and fatalities, emphasizing the dire need for preparedness in the face of such natural disasters.

As the episode progresses, we provide a state-by-state breakdown of the weather conditions, detailing the specific challenges faced by each area. In California, for instance, we discuss the anticipated rainfall and the potential for minor urban flooding, while in Idaho, we highlight the blizzard conditions and the resultant dangers posed to travelers. Our analysis does not shy away from the human aspect of these events, as we recount reports of fatalities linked to the extreme weather, underscoring the importance of vigilance and community response during such crises. By the conclusion of our discourse, we aim to impart a comprehensive understanding of the current storm’s impact, fostering awareness and preparedness among our listeners.

Takeaways:

* A potent Pacific storm is currently causing significant flooding and hazardous weather across the Northwest region. 

* Wind advisories and winter weather warnings have been issued for multiple states due to severe conditions. 

* The ongoing weather events have resulted in major power outages and numerous emergency responses throughout the affected areas. 

* Travel remains extremely dangerous in regions experiencing blizzard conditions and high winds, particularly in North Dakota and Montana. 

* Flood warnings and advisories continue to be in effect as heavy rainfall persists in western Oregon and California. 

* Authorities are urging residents to remain vigilant and prepared for changing weather conditions and potential evacuations. 

Sources

[NWS Eureka AFD | https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?format=CI&glossary=1&highlight=off&issuedby=EKA&product=AFD&site=NWS&version=1]

[NWS Bay Area Dense Fog Advisory | https://www.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=lox&wwa=all]

[NWS Denver/Boulder AFD | https://www.weather.gov/bou/afd]

[NWS Denver/Boulder Hazards | https://www.weather.gov/bou/]

[NWS Pocatello Hazards | https://www.weather.gov/pih/]

[AP | https://apnews.com/article/fe814b86139b6d30b8e19f5f1d44e47e]

[NWS Duluth Hazards | https://www.weather.gov/dlh/]

[NWS Duluth Marine | https://www.weather.gov/dlh/marine]

[NWS Glasgow | https://www.weather.gov/ggw/]

[NWS text for MT/ND blizzard | https://www.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=bis&wwa=all]

[NWS Bismarck | https://www.weather.gov/bis/]

[BIS Decision Support Blizzard Brief (PDF) | https://www.weather.gov/media/bis/DssPacket.pdf]

[NWS Portland Briefing/Hazards | https://www.weather.gov/pqr/]

[NWS Coastal Flood Advisory | https://www.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=pqr&wwa=all]

[NWS/WPC ERO | https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php]

[NWS Aberdeen | https://www.weather.gov/abr/]

[NWS Seattle Hazards | https://www.weather.gov/sew/]

[AP regional impacts | https://apnews.com/article/fe814b86139b6d30b8e19f5f1d44e47e]

[NWS Cheyenne High Wind Warning | https://www.weather.gov/cys/highwind]

[NWS Cheyenne Hazards | https://www.weather.gov/cys/]
 

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit emnetwork.substack.com/subscribe

Emergency Weather Briefing: Floods and Blizzard Alerts in Effect

The salient point of our discussion today centers on the impending severe weather conditions forecasted to affect multiple regions, particularly as a formidable Pacific storm approaches from the Northwest. This meteorological event is anticipated to bring damaging winds, mountain snow, and localized blizzard conditions across the Northern Rockies and Plains. Furthermore, we delve into the ongoing flood response in Western Washington, where the region grapples with the aftermath of excessive rainfall, compounded by river warnings and landslide risks as additional weather fronts approach. We also highlight the potential for hazardous travel conditions due to high winds and snow in various states, including North Dakota and Montana, as well as the growing concerns over winter storm watches and blizzard conditions in the northern plains. As we progress through our analysis, we will remain vigilant in tracking river stages, wind advisories, and the timing of forthcoming storms, ensuring that our audience is well-informed and prepared for the evolving weather scenarios.

A thorough examination of the current meteorological landscape reveals the intricate dynamics of a formidable Pacific storm traversing the United States, particularly as it approaches the Northern Rockies and Plains. This storm is characterized by its capacity to generate damaging winds ranging from 50 to 70 mph, coupled with significant snowfall and the potential for localized blizzard conditions. The podcast meticulously unpacks the repercussions of this weather event, particularly for Western Washington, which is currently in a state of flood response following an extensive period of heavy precipitation. The discussion focuses on the heightened risks of river flooding and landslides, a situation exacerbated by the saturated soils resulting from recent rainfall. As the storm progresses, listeners are informed of the potential for additional fronts to exacerbate these conditions, emphasizing the ongoing vulnerability of the region.

The narrative further extends to the specific weather advisories across various states, detailing the high wind advisories and renewed flood threats that are expected to emerge in Northwest Oregon and Southwest Washington. The podcast dissects the implications of these advisories, particularly for transportation and infrastructure, as well as the efforts of local and national weather services to keep the public informed. The dangers posed by high winds and blizzard conditions in the High Plains are highlighted, illustrating the widespread impact of the storm across state lines. The podcast adeptly conveys the seriousness of the situation, advocating for public awareness and action in response to the impending weather challenges.

As the episode draws to a close, the discussion encapsulates the necessity for vigilance and preparedness in the face of such formidable weather phenomena. It calls upon listeners to remain abreast of the evolving circumstances, emphasizing the importance of heeding warnings and taking precautionary measures to ensure safety. Ultimately, the podcast serves as an invaluable resource for understanding the complexities of severe weather and underscores the imperative of community resilience in the face of natural adversities.

Takeaways:

* The Pacific storm is expected to bring significant damaging winds and snow across various regions today. 

* Western Washington continues to face serious flooding issues following an extended period of heavy rainfall. 

* High wind warnings and advisories are in effect across numerous states, indicating hazardous conditions. 

* Travel disruptions are anticipated due to heavy winds and potential blizzard conditions in the northern regions. 

* Forecasters predict a powerful atmospheric river to impact the area with heavy rain and rising rivers soon. 

* Weather advisories highlight the risk of downed trees and utility outages due to saturated soils. 

Sources

[WPC | https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov]

[NWS Seattle | https://www.weather.gov/sew/]

[USGS Latest Earthquakes (map) | https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=16.8,-137.2&extent=55.0,-52.8&listOnlyShown=true]

[NOAA SWPC | https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion]

[NWS Seattle — AFD/hazards | https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?issuedby=SEW&product=AFD&site=sew]

[NWS Seattle homepage | https://www.weather.gov/sew/]

[AP recap of state impacts | https://apnews.com/article/5a5d085e96e98d24c96a889b4d7d8e6c]

[WSDOT | https://wsdot.wa.gov/]

[NWS Portland hazards | https://www.weather.gov/pqr/]

[NWS Pendleton alert (media relay) | https://ktvz.com/weather/alerts-weather/2025/12/17/high-wind-warning-issued-december-17-at-134am-pst-until-december-17-at-400pm-pst-by-nws-pendleton-or/]

[ODOT TripCheck closures | https://www.tripcheck.com/DynamicReports/Report/RoadConditions]

[NWS Bay Area AFD — key messages | https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?issuedby=MTR&product=AFD&site=mtr]

[WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook overview | https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov]

[NWS Boise AFD/advisories | https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?issuedby=BOI&product=AFD&site=BOI]

[NWS Pocatello High Wind Warning | https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=IDZ073&product1=High+Wind+Warning]

[Boise hazards | https://www.weather.gov/boi/]

[NWS Great Falls/TFX warnings | https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=byz&wwa=all]

[East Glacier hazard page | https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=48.4438&lon=-113.2255]

[NWS Cheyenne warnings text | https://www.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=cys&wwa=all]

[NWS Denver/Boulder — point forecast showing High Wind Warning | https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=40.56&lon=-105.07]

[WPC national hazards note | https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov]

[NWS Bismarck state forecast product | https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?issuedby=ND&product=SFP&site=AKQ]

[NWS Grand Forks DSS/Blizzard potential PDF | https://www.weather.gov/media/fgf/DssPacket.pdf]

[NWS Rapid City AFD | https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?issuedby=UNR&product=AFD&site=UNR]

[NWS Rapid City High Wind Warning text | https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=SDZ076&product1=High+Wind+Warning]

[NWS North Platte HWO | https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?issuedby=LBF&product=HWO&site=NWS]

[WFO North Platte hazards map | https://www.weather.gov/lbf/]

[NWS Salt Lake City homepage advisory | https://www.weather.gov/slc/]

[SLC point forecast showing Wind Advisory | https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=40.7585&lon=-111.8881]

[NWS Duluth hazards | https://www.weather.gov/dlh/]

[NWS Grand Forks web brief | https://www.weather.gov/fgf/]
 

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit emnetwork.substack.com/subscribe

The Impending Storm: A Detailed Analysis of the Pacific Weather System

This podcast episode provides a comprehensive overview of the significant weather events currently affecting various regions, with a particular emphasis on the hazardous conditions prevalent in the Pacific Northwest. The National Weather Service has issued winter storm warnings for the Washington Cascades, predicting an accumulation of snow ranging from 10 to 36 inches, accompanied by ridge gusts reaching up to 65 miles per hour. Furthermore, the episode highlights the ongoing flooding situation in the Skagit River area near Mount Vernon, where major flooding is anticipated, prompting an extension of the flood warning into Friday. In addition, we examine the winter storm warnings affecting Juneau in Alaska, as well as the persistent lake effect snow impacting parts of New York. The episode concludes with a reminder for listeners to remain vigilant and heed local advisories regarding these severe weather conditions.

A comprehensive analysis of the current meteorological conditions reveals a significant winter storm warning in effect across the Pacific Northwest, particularly impacting the Washington Cascades. The National Weather Service has forecasted an alarming accumulation of snow ranging from ten to thirty-six inches, accompanied by ridge gusts reaching up to sixty-five miles per hour. This substantial snowfall is anticipated to commence in the late afternoon and persist through Wednesday night, thereby creating hazardous travel conditions and raising concerns for residents in the affected areas. Moreover, the Skagit River is experiencing notable flooding, with warnings extended until Friday, underscoring the urgency for vigilance and preparedness among local communities.

In the broader context of weather phenomena, Alaska’s Panhandle is similarly grappling with winter storm warnings, predicting an additional three to seven inches of snowfall, coupled with gusty winds of thirty-five to forty miles per hour. These conditions are expected to pose challenges for both residents and travelers alike. The Great Lakes region is not exempt from winter weather, as lake effect snow continues to affect parts of New York, particularly Jefferson and Lewis counties, where visibility may be severely compromised by intense snow bands producing rapid accumulations and slick road conditions. Such developments necessitate heightened awareness and adherence to safety protocols as the region navigates through these tumultuous winter conditions.

Takeaways:

* The Pacific Northwest is currently experiencing severe winter storm conditions and hazards. 

* The National Weather Service has issued winter storm warnings for multiple regions until Wednesday night. 

* Significant flooding is forecasted near Mount Vernon, affecting low-lying areas and access. 

* Alaska’s Panhandle continues to face winter storm warnings with additional snowfall expected today. 

* Cold temperatures persist in North Carolina, with wind chills posing risks to sensitive populations. 

* Lake effect snow continues to impact visibility and road conditions in parts of New York. 

Sources

[NWS Juneau | https://www.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=usa&wwa=all]

[NWS Los Angeles/Oxnard | https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=hnx&wwa=all]

[NWS Monterey Marine | https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=hnx&wwa=all]

 [NWS Honolulu | https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=usa&wwa=high+surf+advisory]

[NWS Wilmington NC | https://www.weather.gov/ilm/aviation]

[NWS Buffalo | https://www.weather.gov/buf/BUFHWOBUF]

[NWS Seattle | https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=SEW&wwa=flood+warning]

[NWS Seattle | https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=usa&wwa=winter+storm+warning]
 

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit emnetwork.substack.com/subscribe

Critical Weather Updates: Prepare for Winter Hazards

Show NotesEmergency management often explains breakdowns through the lens of surprise, yet many of the hazards shaping our communities were visible long before impact. Todd and Dan unpack the difference between Black Swan events, which are genuinely rare and difficult to predict, and Gray Rhinos, which are highly probable, high-impact threats that are acknowledged but repeatedly deferred. The discussion explores how normalcy bias, political incentives, and institutional design can lead to the normalization of known risks and why mislabeling Gray Rhinos as Black Swans undermines resilience and professional credibility.

Topics covered include:

* How Black Swan events are defined and why they are often misunderstood

* The concept of Gray Rhinos and how visible risks become politically inconvenient

* Why emergency management defaults to the language of surprise

* Normalcy bias and the danger of mistaking familiarity for safety

* The gap between identifying risk and acting on it

* Why mitigation and capacity building remain undervalued

* How governance incentives shape preparedness outcomes

Key TakeawayMost disasters are not shocking because they were unpredictable; they are devastating because they were postponed. Emergency management succeeds not by reacting well to surprise, but by refusing to ignore what is already charging straight at us.
 

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit emnetwork.substack.com/subscribe

Is it a Black Swan Event or a Gray Rhino?

The primary focus of today’s discussion centers upon the ongoing adverse weather conditions impacting various regions across the United States. As articulated, the National Weather Service has issued numerous warnings and advisories, particularly in the east and Great Lakes, where lake effect snow and severe cold conditions persist. Furthermore, we delve into the flood warnings affecting the Skagit River and the repercussions of a recent magnitude 4.0 earthquake in California, which, while not resulting in significant damage, has prompted caution regarding aftershocks. The episode also addresses hazardous travel conditions in the Los Angeles area due to dense fog and high winds in Montana, underscoring the diverse and severe weather phenomena currently in play. We conclude with a reminder of the importance of preparedness as these conditions evolve, urging listeners to prioritize their safety amidst these challenges.

A comprehensive overview of the current meteorological conditions reveals a predominantly weather-driven scenario with significant implications for various regions across the United States. The National Weather Service has issued lake effect snow warnings for areas adjacent to Lakes Erie and Ontario, highlighting the persistent and severe cold that dominates the eastern parts of the country, while freeze alerts extend precariously down to the northern Gulf Coast. The discussion further elaborates on the ongoing flood crisis in Washington State, exacerbated by another deluge of rain from the Cascade Mountains, necessitating renewed vigilance as levels surge above flood stage once more. The seismic activity is also noteworthy, as a magnitude 4.0 earthquake rattled Sonoma County, California, prompting the acknowledgment of potential aftershocks, albeit with no immediate reports of significant damage. This episode serves as a crucial reminder of the unpredictable and often perilous nature of weather phenomena, urging listeners to remain informed and prepared for extreme conditions.

Takeaways:

* The National Weather Service warns of persistent cold weather and snow across the eastern states. 

* California experienced a magnitude 4.0 earthquake, with minor aftershocks but no significant damage reported. 

* Flood warnings are currently in effect for the Skagit River as rain increases water levels above flood stage. 

* Dense fog is impacting visibility in the Los Angeles area, making commutes hazardous this morning. 

* Freeze warnings are in place across parts of Florida, indicating significant cold weather conditions ahead. 

* A statewide state of preparedness has been declared in West Virginia due to expected snowfall and plunging temperatures. 

Sources

[NWS Tallahassee — Office Page (Freeze/Cold headlines) | https://www.weather.gov/tae/]

[Freeze/Cold Advisory Example (active alert text) | https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?firewxzone=FLZ009&product1=Freeze+Warning]

[USGS — M4.0, 6 km W of Glen Ellen, CA | https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/nc75279971]

[NWS Los Angeles/Oxnard — Office Page (Dense Fog Advisory) |

https://www.weather.gov/lox/]

[NWS San Francisco/Monterey — Dense Fog Advisory (relay) | https://kioncentralcoast.com/weather-authority/alerts-weather-authority/2025/12/15/dense-fog-advisory-issued-december-15-at-151am-pst-until-december-15-at-1100am-pst-by-nws-san-francisco-ca/]

[NWS Tallahassee — Office Page (Freeze/Rip Currents/Marine) | https://www.weather.gov/tae/?n=ghwo_waves]

[NWS Tallahassee — Office Page (regional Freeze coverage) | https://www.weather.gov/tae/]

[NWS Atlanta/Peachtree City — Office Page (Cold Weather

Advisory) | https://www.weather.gov/ffc/]

[NWS Great Falls — High Wind Warning (alert text) | https://forecast.weather.gov/zipcity.php?inputstring=59401]

[NWS Great Falls — Office Page | https://www.weather.gov/tfx/]

[NWS Buffalo — Lake-Effect Snow Warning (Oswego Co. example)

| https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?product1=Lake+Effect+Snow+Warning&warnzone=NYZ006]

[NWS Buffalo — HWO/Advisories (WNY) | https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?product1=Lake+Effect+Snow+Warning&warnzone=NYZ085]

[NWS Wilmington OH — Office Page | https://www.weather.gov/iln/]

[MapClick — Cincinnati (Cold Weather Advisory example) | https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=39.12711&lon=-84.51439]

[NWS Pittsburgh — HWO (NW PA with Lake-Effect impacts) | https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=ctp&wwa=hazardous+weather+outlook]

[NWS Cleveland — DSS Packet (Lake-Effect timing into Monday)

| https://www.weather.gov/media/cle/DssPacket.pdf]

[NWS Austin/San Antonio — Office Page (Freeze Warning) | https://www.weather.gov/ewx/]

[NWS Fort Worth/Dallas — AFD/Key Messages | https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?glossary=1&issuedby=fwd&product=AFD&site=NWS]

[NWS Seattle — Skagit River Flood Warning | https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?issuedby=SEW&product=FLW&site=MTR]

[NOAA Water — Skagit at Mt. Vernon Gauge | https://water.noaa.gov/gauges/mvew1]

[Office of the Governor — State of Preparedness (12/13, official; within 48h window for ongoing action) | https://governor.wv.gov/article/governor-morrisey-declares-state-preparedness]
 

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State-by-State Weather Breakdown: What to Expect Today

The ongoing extreme atmospheric river has rendered Western Washington and northwestern Oregon in a state of emergency response. Despite a temporary easing of rainfall, the ramifications of major to catastrophic river flooding persist, with additional atmospheric rivers anticipated in the forthcoming week. FEMA’s operations continue to address evacuations, shelter provisions, and transportation disruptions in the affected regions. As we traverse various states, we note that Alaska grapples with blizzard conditions while other areas, such as New York, face significant lake effect snow. Throughout this episode, we remain vigilant in monitoring the evolving weather scenarios across the nation, emphasizing the need for preparedness and safety in light of these severe conditions.

The recent EM Morning Brief delineates the ongoing challenges faced by Western Washington and northwestern Oregon as they grapple with the aftermath of an unprecedented atmospheric river event. The episode opens with a somber acknowledgment of the severe flooding that has afflicted these regions, emphasizing that while the immediate rainfall has subsided, the repercussions are far from over. The Weather Prediction Center has issued dire warnings regarding significant river flooding, which may persist for an extended period, compounded by the potential for additional atmospheric rivers in the forthcoming week. The episode articulates the crucial role of FEMA in orchestrating evacuations and providing shelter, underscoring the collaborative efforts in federal tribal coordination to mitigate the disaster’s impact.

The discussion further elaborates on the broader meteorological landscape across the United States, with a particular focus on the Arctic air masses sweeping southward and the impending lake effect snow that threatens the Great Lakes region. Alaska is highlighted for its harsh conditions, including blizzard advisories and travel disruptions due to severe marine weather. The nuances of state-level responses are meticulously detailed, particularly California’s proactive measures in deploying Urban Search and Rescue Task Forces to assist in flood response operations in Washington. This segment of the episode encapsulates the interconnectedness of state responses to natural disasters, illustrating the importance of mutual aid systems in times of crisis.

In addition to these primary themes, the episode touches upon localized weather phenomena affecting Idaho, Minnesota, and New York, where residents face their own sets of winter hazards and flood warnings. The narrative concludes with a call for vigilance and safety amidst the ongoing turmoil, reiterating the importance of staying informed through reliable channels. This comprehensive overview not only serves to inform but also to remind listeners of the resilience required in the face of nature’s formidable challenges.

Takeaways:

* The atmospheric river has significantly impacted Western Washington and northwestern Oregon, necessitating ongoing emergency responses. 

* FEMA is currently coordinating evacuations, opening shelters, and managing transportation disruptions in the affected regions. 

* Flood warnings remain in effect across Idaho, with specific rivers experiencing critical flooding conditions. 

* Minnesota has issued cold weather advisories due to dangerous wind chills and snow hazards expected this weekend. 

* In Oregon, river flooding continues, prompting the National Weather Service to maintain flood warnings and advisories for local communities. 

* Texas is experiencing dense fog conditions, impacting visibility and travel safety across the coastal region. 

Sources

[NWS Fairbanks | https://www.weather.gov/afg/]

[Alaska Marine Highway—Service Notices | https://dot.alaska.gov/amhs/service_notices.shtml]

[Office of the Governor | https://www.gov.ca.gov/2025/12/11/governor-newsom-deploys-resources-as-atmospheric-river-causes-catastrophic-flooding-in-the-pacific-northwest/]

[NWS Spokane—Flood Warnings | https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?lat=47.9744&lon=-116.3059&product1=Flood+Warning]

[Bonner County Daily Bee | https://bonnercountydailybee.com/news/2025/dec/12/flood-emergency-declared-in-shoshone-county-coeur-/]

[NWS Duluth—Hazards | https://www.weather.gov/dlh/]

[City of Libby—Boil Order (Dec. 11) | https://cityoflibby.com/]

[Montana Free Press | https://montanafreepress.org/2025/12/11/atmospheric-river-drives-flooding-in-northwest-montana/]

[NWS Buffalo—Lake-Effect Snow Warnings | https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=buf&wwa=lake%20effect%20snow%20warning]

[Democrat & Chronicle | https://www.democratandchronicle.com/story/weather/2025/12/12/lake-effect-snow-warning-new-york-how-much-snow-totals-snowstorm-forecast/87730027007/]

[NWS Portland—Watches/Warnings | https://www.weather.gov/pqr/]

[The Astorian | https://www.dailyastorian.com/news/local/flood-warning-issued-for-highway-101-at-seaside/article_b5fd6266-1d0b-11ef-a72a-931dbd6c3e83.html]

[NWS Corpus Christi | https://www.weather.gov/crp/]

[Laredo Morning Times | https://www.lmtonline.com/local/article/weather-nws-fog-mist-visibility-hazardous-traffic-21237911.php]

[NWS Seattle—Watches/Warnings | https://www.weather.gov/sew/]

[Governor of Washington—Emergency Proclamation | https://governor.wa.gov/news/2025/washington-state-responds-severe-weather-emergency-proclamation-issued]
 

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Emergency Responses to Catastrophic Weather Events in the Northwest

The current episode elucidates the dire situation unfolding in the Pacific Northwest, where a potent atmospheric river has instigated severe flooding, prompting the governor of Washington to declare a statewide emergency. As multiple rivers reach or exceed flood stage, the National Guard has been activated to assist in the response efforts. We explore the rapid rise of levee concerns, particularly in regions such as the Skagit, Snohomish, Chehalis, Cowlitz, and Puyallup basins, underscoring the critical need for residents to heed local evacuation guidance and avoid flooded roadways. Moreover, we discuss the implications of high wind warnings in southeastern Wyoming, where gusts have reached alarmingly high levels, resulting in hazardous driving conditions. This episode aims to provide an informed overview of the ongoing weather-related adversities, emphasizing the necessity for vigilance and preparedness in the face of such natural calamities.

A persistent atmospheric river continues to exert its influence over the Pacific Northwest, leading to severe weather conditions characterized by intense precipitation and resultant flooding. The governor of Washington has declared a statewide emergency, which has necessitated the activation of the National Guard to assist in mitigating the impact of the flooding that affects multiple rivers, some of which are reaching or exceeding flood stage. Concerns regarding levee integrity remain paramount, particularly in the Skagit, Snohomish, Chehalis, Cowlitz, and Puyallup basins, where swift rises in water levels pose a significant risk to the surrounding communities. Residents are urged to exercise caution, avoiding flooded roadways and adhering to local evacuation directives as the situation develops. As we navigate through this precarious weather event, the Weather Prediction Center has issued warnings for elevated rainfall risks across western Washington and northwest Oregon, with the potential for additional precipitation persisting into the weekend, thereby exacerbating the already critical conditions.

Takeaways:

* The Pacific Northwest is currently experiencing severe weather conditions due to a powerful atmospheric river. 

* Governor of Washington has declared a statewide emergency, activating the National Guard for flood response. 

* Residents are advised to avoid flooded roads and adhere to local evacuation guidance promptly. 

* Wyoming is facing significant wind hazards, resulting in the closure of major highway segments. 

* Alaska has established a Bethel Assistance Hub to aid survivors from the recent West Coast storm. 

* New York continues to experience winter storm warnings due to lake effect snow and hazardous travel conditions. 

Sources

[FEMA | https://www.fema.gov/press-release/20251210/bethel-assistance-hub-opens-dec-11-support-alaskans]

[NWS Anchorage | https://www.weather.gov/afc]

[NWS Buffalo WSW | https://www.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=buf&wwa=all]

[NWS Fort Drum/Watertown Hazard Page | https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=43.972377&lon=-75.911254]

[NWS Portland Flood Statements | https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=pqr&wwa=flood%20warning]

[PBOT Travel Advisory | https://www.portland.gov/transportation/news/2025/12/8/travel-advisory-heavy-rains-monday-night-through-wednesday-and]

[ODOT TripCheck | https://www.tripcheck.com/DynamicReports/Report/RoadConditions/0]

[Governor WA News Release | https://governor.wa.gov/news/news-releases]

[Proclamation (PDF) | https://governor.wa.gov/sites/default/files/proclamations/25-07%20-%20Atmospheric%20River.pdf]

[NWS Seattle Flood Warnings | https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=sew&wwa=flood+warning]

[WPC ERO | https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php]

[AP | https://apnews.com/article/28344ef2f138633444ab247b91c4e4f4]

[NWS Cheyenne High Wind Warnings | https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=cys&wwa=high+wind+warning]

[WYDOT I-80 | https://www.wyoroad.info/pls/Browse/WRR.RoutesResults?SelectedRoute=I80]

[WYDOT I-25 | https://www.wyoroad.info/pls/Browse/WRR.RoutesResults?SelectedRoute=I25]
 

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Statewide Emergency Declared as Flooding Escalates in Washington

When it comes to leadership and emergency management, the “Theory-N2-Practice” is an examination and evaluation of learning and leadership.

This podcast will take the listener on a journey of personal and professional growth. development with reflection, evaluation, and correction.

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October 12, 2023 Leadership Networking and Book Release Event
https://streamyard.com/watch/9t8qEfGHxnXA 

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