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Nate Hagens

The Great Simplification with Nate Hagens explores money, energy, economy, and the environment with world experts and leaders to understand how everything fits together, and where we go from here.

The Great Simplification with Nate Hagens

In this week’s Frankly, Nate considers the ways in which our social species overvalues false-confidence rather than the more honest and inquisitive response of “I don’t know.” He invites us to consider the science behind this cultural bias towards certainty: from our biological response from the stress of “not knowing” to the reinforcing effects of motivated reasoning that ensnares even the smartest among us (especially the smartest among us).
 
Overconfidence and the desire for quick answers have been the root cause of many of humanity’s disasters, from the space shuttle Challenger explosion to the Deep Water Horizon oil spill to the subprime housing bubble. And now, the exponential growth and integration of Artificial Intelligence is hyper-fueling this risk, as AI mirrors the human aversion to uncertainty through “hallucinations”. As some AI companies are now considering penalizing over-confident answers in favor of “I don’t know”, perhaps humans could learn to do the same for ourselves.
 
How often do you say. "I don't know"? In what ways do we lose opportunities for conversation and exploration by not admitting our own uncertainties? Can listening to our own gut for “truth” and embracing intentional Red Team dissent shift “I don’t know” from weakness to wisdom?
 
(Recorded October 17th, 2025)
 
 
 
 Show Notes and More
 
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The Three Most Important Words We’re Taught Not to Say

Monopolistic business practices have been illegal in the United States for more than a century. Yet, monopoly power continues to accelerate in our modern commercial landscape. Large, powerful corporations edge out smaller businesses, often citing scale, “efficiency”, and lower costs as their reasons for success. But looking more closely reveals a reality that is far different. Small businesses are more cost-effective and deliver better results to the people they serve than giant corporations. Furthermore, they form the backbone of engaged and connected communities. So what is actually preventing small businesses (and communities) from flourishing, and what can individuals do today to build economic power in their communities? 
 
In this episode, Nate is joined by economic writer and strategist, Stacy Mitchell, to explore how concentrated economic power shapes the health of towns and cities – from economic resilience to social connectedness. They unpack why big businesses actually deliver poorer, pricier results and more vulnerable supply chains, yet are able squeeze smaller businesses out of the market. Stacy also sheds light on the United States’ long history of breaking up monopolies through antitrust laws, and the policy developments in recent decades that have prevented their enforcement. 
 
How do small businesses play an integral role in fostering resilient social capital? Why have we seen an increase in economic consolidation and inequality in the last several decades, and how can we reverse it? Finally, what practical steps can each of us take in our own communities to advance more localized economic systems that better serve people and the planet?
 
(Conversation recorded on September 18th, 2025) 
 
 
 
 
About Stacy Mitchell:
 
Stacy Mitchell is a writer, strategist, and policy advocate. She is Co-Executive Director of the Institute for Local Self-Reliance, an organization that for five decades has challenged the wisdom of neoliberalism and championed local, community-oriented models. She also serves on the board of the Maine Center for Economic Policy. 
 
Additionally, Stacy is the author of Big-Box Swindle: The True Cost of Mega-Retailers and the Fight for America’s Independent Businesses. In 2016, she co-authored Amazon’s Stranglehold, an influential report that took a critical eye to the e-commerce giant. Congress cited her research on Amazon’s monopolization strategy in its investigation of Big Tech’s dominance in 2021 and her work informed the Federal Trade Commission’s antitrust lawsuit against the company in 2023. She has also worked extensively at the local level, helping communities craft policies that support local entrepreneurship and vibrant commercial districts. 
 
 
 
 Show Notes and More
 
Watch this video episode on YouTube
 
 
 
Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our Animated Movie.
 
 
 
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Challenging Monopoly Power: Why Local Business is Better for People, the Planet, and Your Wallet with Stacy Mitchell

In this week’s Frankly, Nate reflects on the multiple metaphors brought to mind via a single photograph, which depicts a sloth climbing a barbed wire fence in Costa Rica. Beyond evoking compassion for a species that’s on the receiving end of human intervention into its ecosystem, the image raises larger ideas about the response of animals, including humans, to artificial cues and novel environments. Just as the sloth mistakes a fence post for the safety of a tree, modern humans mistake consumption, speed, and certainty for meaning.
 
Moving beyond just the image, Nate unpacks the word “sloth” itself as one of the original seven deadly sins, offering a reimagining of what today’s seven moral failings might be in the context of a global economic superorganism. Apathy, righteousness, and anthropocentrism might be today’s major vices, which each have consequences for the environment and our relationship to it.
 
Can we stand our ground locally against the global superorganism? How can we begin to reclaim agency and compassion – both for ourselves and the ecosystems we are inextricably a part of? Do our instincts no longer serve us in a world so rapidly and radically changed?
 
(Recorded October 13th, 2025)
 
 
 
 Show Notes and More

 
Watch this video episode on YouTube
 
 
 
Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our Animated Movie.
 

 
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What Sloths Teach Us About the Superorganism

Twenty-five years ago, a landmark paper warned that the world’s coral reefs could vanish by 2050. Now, halfway to that projected date (and amid ever more frequent coral bleaching events), that grim prediction feels increasingly close to reality. What is the current state of Earth’s coral reefs, and what would happen to our planetary home without them? 
 
In this episode, Nate is joined by Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, the marine biologist who made this landmark prediction, for an update on the health of coral reefs and the primary ecological stressors driving their decline. Drawing on decades of research, he explains the mechanisms of coral bleaching, the critical biodiversity hotspots that reefs create, and the implications for human populations that depend on these ecosystems. Ove also touches on the emotional impact of witnessing the loss of reefs for the scientists who have dedicated their lives to studying them.
 
How are human actions increasingly putting pressure on the very ecosystems that support more than one billion people? What would happen to the broader health of the oceans if reefs were to disappear entirely? And most of all, what changes can both individuals and institutions make today to support the health of these vital ecosystems – and in-turn, the well-being of the entire Earth?
 
(Conversation recorded on August 6th, 2025) 

 
 
 
About Ove Hoegh-Guldberg:
 
Ove Hoegh-Guldberg is Professor of Marine Studies at the University of Queensland in Brisbane, Australia, as well as the Deputy Director of the Centre for Excellence in Coral Reef Studies. Over the past 10 years, he was also the Founding Director of the Global Change Institute. In addition to this work, Ove conceived and led the scientific XL-Catlin Seaview Survey which has surveyed over 1000 km of coral reefs across 25 countries and captured and analysed over 1 million survey images of coral reefs. 
 
Ove’s research focuses on the impacts of global change on marine ecosystems, and he is one of the most cited authors on climate change. He has also been a dedicated communicator of the threat posed by ocean warming and acidification to marine ecosystems, being one of the first scientists to identify the serious threat posed by climate change for coral reefs in a landmark paper published in 1999, which predicted the loss of coral reefs by 2050. 
 
 
 
 Show Notes and More
 
Watch this video episode on YouTube
 
 
 
Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our Animated Movie.
 
 
 
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Will Coral Reefs Be Gone by 2050? How Bleaching, Acidification, and Ocean Heating are Killing Coral Reefs with Ove Hoegh-Guldberg

For many people in the modern world, electricity powers everything we do. Yet we take for granted how power flows in the background, seemingly always accessible to us just by flipping a switch. In fact, most of us are completely unaware of what it takes to generate and transmit the power we so deeply rely on, let alone the policy decisions shaping our electrical grids – or how they might affect reliable access to power. How do today’s electrical grids actually work, and do they align with our long-term goals for human and planetary well-being?
 
In this episode, Nate is joined by Meredith Angwin for an in-depth overview of the U.S. electrical grid system, its history, and the need for accountability in energy governance. Meredith discusses the infrastructure of the grid, the complexities of grid management, and the implications of shifting to market-based systems. Additionally, she emphasizes the critical importance of resource adequacy and reliability – and the barriers to that in our current policy landscape. 
 
How has the increased use of renewables and natural gas affected the broader dynamics of the grid? If the electrical grid were to fail, who is responsible for the problem, and who should fix it? Ultimately, what variables do we need to consider as we attempt to provide dependable electricity for everyone without jeopardizing the stability of the Earth? 
 
 
 
About Meredith Angwin:
 
Meredith Angwin studies and takes part in grid over-sight and governance. For four years, she served on the Coordinating Committee for the Consumer Liaison Group associated with ISO-NE, her local grid operator. She also teaches courses and workshops on the electric grid, and wrote a book titled, Shorting the Grid: The Hidden Fragility of our Electric Grid, analyzing the electrical grid from a physical science and policy perspective.
 
As a working chemist, Meredith Angwin headed projects that lowered pollution and increased reliability on the electric grid. Her work included pollution control for nitrogen oxides in gas-fired combustion turbines, and corrosion control in geothermal and nuclear systems. Further, she is an inventor on several patents and was one of the first women to be a project manager at the Electric Power Research Institute where she led projects in renewable and nuclear energy.
 
(Conversation recorded on September 17th, 2025) 
 
 
 
 
 Show Notes and More
 
Watch this video episode on YouTube
 
 
 
Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our Animated Movie.
 
 
 
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Is the U.S. Electric Grid Stable? Policy, Renewables, and Who Is Responsible If The Grid Fails with Meredith Angwin

To view the graphs Nate is referring to in this episode, please click here.
 
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In this week’s Frankly, Nate returns from New York City Climate Week with fresh reflections on the disconnect between our economic narratives and biophysical realities. Using his background in finance, Nate observes that while the prioritization of financial abstractions and claims continue to accelerate, with gold and silver prices reaching record-setting highs, the ledger is being balanced with parallel declines in our planetary health and social resilience. This tradeoff is harder and harder to ignore as newly crossed planetary boundaries continue alerting us to the fact that we are operating outside of our Earth’s ability to maintain biospheric stability.
 
Nate also gives an update on Peak Oil, drawing on the International Energy Agency’s recent report regarding the implications of oil and gas field decline rates. He emphasizes that the question at hand is not if these energetic supply constraints will affect the trajectory of human systems – rather, the question is when it will come into effect, and how we will respond as a human species.
 
Given the increasing number of reports on declining oil forecasts, how much longer can our society remain energy-blind? Where might our priorities shift if we truly understood the biophysical limits shaping our future? Lastly, if we were to zoom out towards a wider boundary lens, what types of societal responses become possible that could steer us towards better human and planetary futures? 
 
(Recorded September 30, 2025)
 
 
 
 Show Notes and More
 
Watch this video episode on YouTube
 
 
 
Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our Animated Movie.
 
 
 
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Peak Oil, Ponzi Pyramids, and Planetary Boundaries

The overarching definition of success today often looks like the accumulation of stuff – money, cars, property, clothing – anything that signals wealth. This means that success is also synonymous with overshoot, extraction, and consumption – none of which lead to healthy outcomes for the planet or the global good. But what might be possible if we were to redefine success to prioritize collective well-being instead of personal gain?
 
In today’s episode, Nate sits down with Dutch historian and author Rutger Bregman to discuss the concept of moral ambition, which he defines as the desire to be one of the best, measured by different standards of success: not by big payouts or fancy honorifics, but by the ability to tackle the world’s biggest problems. Bregman highlights the importance of entrepreneurs in driving social change and the necessity of cultural shifts to foster a more altruistic society, as well as the challenges faced in pursuing these ideals.
 
What possibilities might arise if we combined the idealism of an activist with the ambition of an entrepreneur? How can we apply the principles of entrepreneurship to better address global challenges? And how could a radical redefinition of success motivate the world’s top talent to make major contributions to our most pressing issues, leaving a legacy that actually makes a difference?
 
(Conversation recorded on July 8th, 2025)
 
 
 
About Rutger Bregman:
 
Rutger Bregman is a Dutch historian and author. Initially considering a career as an academic historian, Rutger instead ventured into journalism. He began his career at the Dutch newspaper De Volkskrant before moving to the independent journalism platform De Correspondent, for which he wrote for ten years. His books Humankind: A Hopeful History (2020) and Utopia for Realists: And How We Can Get There (2017) were both Sunday Times and New York Times bestsellers and have been translated into 46 languages.
 
In 2024, Rutger co-founded The School for Moral Ambition, a non-profit organization inspired by his latest book, Moral Ambition: Stop Wasting Your Talent and Start Making a Difference. The initiative helps people to take the step toward an impactful career.
 

 
 Show Notes and More
 
Watch this video episode on YouTube
 
 
 
Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our Animated Movie.
 
 
 
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Support The Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future
 
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 Join our Hylo channel and connect with other listeners

Moral Ambition: Redefining Success for the Global Good with Rutger Bregman

In this week’s Frankly, Nate reflects on intraspecies predation (ours) and the impact psychopathic actors have on the mean and median of human behavior – in the past all the way up to our modern society. Human evolution was shaped by both cooperative, pro-social behavior and a competitive, predatory approach for survival – resulting in a balanced distribution for most of humanity’s existence. 
 
But, as agriculture, surplus, and other factors propelled more hierarchical social structure, aggregate human behavior and culture has slowly shifted over time to express more psychopathic traits. This thread of behavior continues to run through our modern society, where a relatively small (but disproportionately powerful) segment of the human population can pull societal behavior towards anti-social and individualistic values – even if the majority of people still inherently operate from a place of reciprocity.
 
Why might our modern society provide a more fruitful breeding ground for psychopathy than past societies did? What do chickens and eggs have to do with psychopathy and the economic superorganism? And ultimately, what strategies could we begin to think about in order to shift mean and median human behavior back towards a more cooperative, prosocial middle?
 
(Recorded September 22nd, 2025)
 
 
 
 Show Notes and More
 
Watch this video episode on YouTube
 
 
 
Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our Animated Movie.
 
 
 
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The Influence of Psychopaths: Why Humanity Is Better Than We Think

For many people today, the idea of societal collapse is unimaginable. Yet history shows that well-established civilizations have fallen again and again – often for similar reasons. In fact, the same forces that build empires can also culminate in their downfall. How can understanding these historical patterns help us prepare for similar existential risks we may already be facing today? 
 
In this episode, Nate is joined by existential risk researcher Luke Kemp to explore the intricate history of societal collapse – connecting patterns of dominance hierarchies, resource control, and inequality to create societies which he calls Goliaths. Together, they delve into the deep history of what egalitarian humans were like before complex civilizations emerged, and the changes in climate and agriculture that created the conditions for hierarchical societies. Luke explains how these very same factors have culminated in the rise and fall of Goliaths, and how these have led to today’s global challenges such as nuclear warfare and even AI-fueled surveillance states. 
 
Can knowing our past help us avoid repeating it? Are we in collapse now, and was this civilizational trajectory inevitable? How does the study of civilizational collapse help us grasp the best and worst of humanity – and can we use that knowledge to lean into the better sides of ourselves and put ourselves on a different, more resilient path?
 
(Conversation recorded on August 6th, 2025) 
 
 
 
About Luke Kemp:
 
Luke is a Research Affiliate at the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (CSER) and Darwin College at the University of Cambridge. His research focuses on understanding the history and future of extreme global risk. Luke has advised the WHO and multiple international institutions, and his work has been covered by media outlets such as the BBC, New York Times, and the New Yorker. He holds both a Doctorate in International Relations and a Bachelor of Interdisciplinary Studies with first class honours from the Australian National University (ANU). His first book, titled Goliath’s Curse: The History and Future of Societal Collapse, was published in 2025 and is now available.
 
 
 
Show Notes and More
 
Watch this video episode on YouTube
 
 
 
Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our Animated Movie.
 
 
 
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The Past and Future of Societal Collapse: Why Civilizations Fall and What We Can Learn From It with Luke Kemp

Psychopathy is often portrayed as a rare and distant phenomenon – something confined to movie villains or prison cells. Yet when psychopathy is combined with narcissism and Machiavellianism to form what psychologists call the Dark Triad, its impact becomes far more immediate. Individuals with these traits can wield disproportionate influence over our culture, institutions, and daily lives. What goes on inside their minds, and how do they shape the world around us?
 
In this episode, Nate is joined by Dr. Reid Meloy and Dr. Nancy McWilliams to explore the inner workings of the Dark Triad personality traits and their manifestation in modern culture. Together, they trace the evolutionary roots of these traits, examine the predatory ways Dark Triad individuals engage with others, and consider the profound implications for leadership, power, and governance. Ultimately, they emphasize the importance of truth and community when navigating the complexities of human behavior.
 
Why are Dark Triad individuals more likely to occupy positions of power? How do current cultural norms and expectations actually incentivize Dark Triad tendencies, including in governance? Most importantly, how can reorienting towards collective communication and cooperation help create guardrails against these ‘darker angels’ of humanity? 
 
(Conversation recorded on July 22nd, 2025)
 

 
About Nancy McWilliams:
 
Dr. Nancy McWilliams, Ph.D., ABPP, is a distinguished psychoanalyst, author, and educator internationally recognized for her contributions to the field of personality theory and psychodynamic diagnosis. She is Professor Emerita at the Graduate School of Applied and Professional Psychology at Rutgers. Her published work addresses the clinical and cultural relevance of language in diagnosing complex personality patterns, including narcissistic and psychopathic structures, and she has written on the psychology of altruism, moral development, and the enduring role of psychoanalytic thinking in understanding human nature. 
 
 
 
About Reid Meloy:
 
Dr. J. Reid Meloy, Ph.D., ABPP, is a board-certified forensic psychologist, former clinical professor of psychiatry at the University of California, San Diego School of Medicine, and a widely cited authority on psychopathy, personality disorders, and targeted violence. Dr. Meloy has served as a consultant, researcher, and trainer for numerous law enforcement, intelligence, and corporate security agencies around the world. He is the author or editor of more than 200 peer-reviewed publications and several seminal books, including The Psychopathic Mind, International Handbook of Threat Assessment, and Violent Attachments. 
 
 
 
 Show Notes and More
 
Watch this video episode on YouTube
 
 
 
Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our Animated Movie.
 
 
 
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Dark Triad Personality Traits: How Psychopathy, Narcissism, and Machiavellianism Impact Our Cultures & Social Systems | RR 19

In this fourth installment of conversations with Daniel Schmachtenberger, we dive deeper into the nuances of humans using energy, materials and technology. Human’s ability to develop and use tools is one of our greatest strengths - yet has also led to increasing destruction of the natural world. How does technology intensify the binding effects of a world order based on growth? Is there any way out - or could global solutions just make the problem worse?
 About Daniel Schmachtenberger: 
Daniel Schmachtenberger is a founding member of The Consilience Project, aimed at improving public sensemaking and dialogue. 
 
The throughline of his interests has to do with ways of improving the health and development of individuals and society, with a virtuous relationship between the two as a goal.
 
Towards these ends, he’s had particular interest in the topics of catastrophic and existential risk, civilization and institutional decay and collapse as well as progress, collective action problems, social organization theories, and the relevant domains in philosophy and science.
 
For Show Notes and Transcript visit: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/42-daniel-schmachtenberger

Daniel Schmachtenberger: “Bend not Break #4: Modeling the Drivers of the Metacrisis”

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