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#1 In 1917, the police had nothing on the case of Henry Cruger’s missing daughter, Ruth. The newspapers had exhausted all their scandalous speculation and turned their focus to World War I, which was raging in Europe.

#2 The FBI’s Behavioral Science Unit has been working on this stuff since 1972. They claim to have a profile of serial killers, but they don’t even use it in court. It’s pseudoscience.

#3 The key issue with police profiling is that it relies on high base rate statements, which are often inaccurate. People want to be liked, and they will accept something vague as close enough if it confirms their belief.

#4 The secret to reading people is to understand your own cognitive biases. We are all susceptible to seeing meaning where there is none, and we desperately need the world to make sense.

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