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Stígðu inn í heim af óteljandi sögum

Hlustaðu og lestu

Shane Parrish

Master the best of what other people have already figured out. 

Deep conversations with the best that go beyond the usual advice to uncover the timeless principles that drive success.

If you enjoy the show, please hit the follow button.

The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish

Bernie Marcus is the co-founder and former CEO of Home Depot. 

This is how he built a culture of ownership, kept going when everyone turned him down, nearly lost it all, and created one of the most successful retailers in history. 

-----

Approximate Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(02:00) Part 1: An Accidental Miracle

(09:29) Part 2: A Golden Horseshoe Kick

(25:49) Part 3: Building From Nothing

(38:53) Part 4: Orange Everywhere

(49:40) Part 5: The Legacy

(54:17) Lessons

-----

Upgrade: Get a hand edited transcripts and ad free experiences along with my thoughts and reflections at the end of every conversation. Learn more @ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠fs.blog/membership⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠------Newsletter: The Brain Food newsletter delivers actionable insights and thoughtful ideas every Sunday. It takes 5 minutes to read, and it’s completely free. Learn more and sign up at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠fs.blog/newsletter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠------

Follow Shane Parrish:X: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://x.com/shaneparrish

Insta: https://www.instagram.com/farnamstreet/

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/shane-parrish-050a2183/

------

Thank you to the sponsors for this episode:

.tech domains: Nothing says tech like being on .tech⁠⁠ https://get.tech/⁠

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-----

Sources:

Marcus, Bernie, and Arthur Blank. Built from Scratch: How a Couple of Regular Guys Grew The Home Depot from Nothing to $30 Billion. New York: Crown Business, 1999.

Best Practice Institute. "Bernie Marcus Interview." YouTube video. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KNP0YYDi1FY.

-----

This episode is for informational purposes only. 
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Bernie Marcus: The Home Depot Story [Outliers]

Ogilvy Vice Chairman Rory Sutherland reveals the formula for persuasion, why people make decisions and how you can use psychology to your advantage. 

Rory is the world’s leading advertising strategist. He spent almost four decades as Ogilvy studying why people behave the way they do and how to change that behavior.

He explains why contrast drives choices and efficiency often destroys value, and how trust, friction, and design shape real-world behavior.

+Rory was previously on the show, check out episode 19.

-----

Approximate Chapters:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:31) AI and Decision Making

(03:48) Are We Looking for Efficiency in the Wrong Place?

(15:52) Ad Break

(18:09) Ice Cold Beer Thought Experiment

(19:56) Trust and Manipulation

(27:15) Dyson Customer Experience and 'Brand Quake'

(29:21) Customer Value Thinking

(34:28) Why Is Dyson So Effective at Marketing?

(36:28) Ad Break

(38:51) Map/Territory Problem in Business

(39:27) The Problem with Shareholders

(42:29) The Problem with 'Tech Bro' Decision Making

(45:14) Warren Buffett’s Approach to Choosing Management

(47:52) John Bragg’s Approach to Buying Infrastructure

(51:23) High Trust vs Low Trust Societies

(58:45) What Can We Learn from the Mad Men Era of Marketing

(1:03:59) The Danger of Bad Marketing

(1:17:47) Navigating Cancel Culture with Common Sense

(1:29:59) Signalling to Ourselves When We Purchase Something

(1:39:06) Changing of Societal Norms

(1:43:27) How to Write Good Copy

(1:56:30) What Is Success for You?

-----

Upgrade: Get a hand edited transcripts and ad free experiences along with my thoughts and reflections at the end of every conversation. Learn more @ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠fs.blog/membership⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠------Newsletter: The Brain Food newsletter delivers actionable insights and thoughtful ideas every Sunday. It takes 5 minutes to read, and it’s completely free. Learn more and sign up at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠fs.blog/newsletter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠------

Follow Shane Parrish:X: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://x.com/shaneparrish

Insta: https://www.instagram.com/farnamstreet/

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/shane-parrish-050a2183/

------

Thank you to the sponsors for this episode:

Basecamp: Stop struggling, start making progress. Get somewhere with Basecamp. Sign up free at http://basecamp.com/knowledgeproject

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.tech domains: Nothing says tech like being on .tech https://get.tech/

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How to Think Like a World-Class Marketer | Rory Sutherland

How do you get ordinary people to achieve extraordinary results?

Mary Kay Ash built a two-billion-dollar company by solving that specific problem.

After watching men she trained get promoted above her for double the salary, she quit to build a company based on a radical idea: meritocracy.

This episode breaks down how she did it. You’ll learn her twenty-three leadership lessons, why pink Cadillacs outperformed raises, and the fundamentals of incentives, recognition, and human motivation that work in any business.

-----

Approximate Chapters:

(00:00) Introduction

(02:25)Part 1: You Can Do It, Mary Kay

(21:35)Part 2: Mary Kay Cosmetics

(36:45)Part 3: The System

(53:44)Epilogue: The Legacy

(55:16)Mary Kay’s 23 Lessons

-----

Upgrade: Get hand-edited transcripts and an ad-free experience, and so much more. Learn more @ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠fs.blog/membership⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

------

Newsletter: The Brain Food newsletter delivers actionable insights and thoughtful ideas every Sunday. It takes 5 minutes to read, and it’s completely free. See what you're missing: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠fs.blog/newsletter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

------

Follow Shane Parrish

X ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@ShaneAParrish⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Insta ⁠@farnamstreet⁠

LinkedIn ⁠Shane Parrish

------

This episode is for informational purposes only.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Mary Kay Ash: The Greatest Salesperson In History [Outliers]

Top Performance Coach Jim Murphy reveals how to eliminate fear, master pressure, and unlock elite performance.

Jim spent 5 years writing Inner Excellence, the mental toughness manual that shot from obscurity to #1 New York Times bestseller overnight when star athlete A.J. Brown was caught reading it on the sidelines of a NFL playoff game.

A personal coach to professional baseball players and Olympic athletes, he teaches how extraordinary performance and a meaningful life follow the exact same path.

-----

Approximate Chapters:

(00:00) Introduction 

(01:01) The Three Elements of Inner Excellence 

(04:36) Before Fame 

(05:42) Discovery: When A.J. Brown Read ‘Inner Excellence’ on TV 

(12:01) Powering Your Life With Clean Fuel vs. Dirty Fuel 

(16:26) Ad Break 

(22:34) Why You Avoid Life by Keeping 'Busy' 

(25:39) Purpose in Life and How He Found Religion 

(31:09) The Interaction of Ego, Self-Centeredness, and Self-Confidence 

(33:59) How to Navigate Failure and Learn From It 

(41:43) Dealing With Comparison in the Modern World 

(47:34) Discovering Your Inner Excellence 

(51:25) Does Success Equal Happiness? 

(55:00) Feeling Guilt or FOMO About Life Choices 

(01:01:21) Changing Your Focus to Get Through Challenging Goals 

(01:05:40) Choices Are Hard to Act On, Rules Are Not 

(01:10:40) Daily Mantras for Success 

(01:12:15) Is the Best Possible Life Driven by Ambition or Love? 

(01:14:52) Why Do We Train Our Bodies but Don’t Train Our Minds? 

(01:15:38) What Is Success for You? 

-----

Upgrade: Get a hand edited transcripts and ad free experiences along with my thoughts and reflections at the end of every conversation. Learn more @ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠fs.blog/membership⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠------Newsletter: The Brain Food newsletter delivers actionable insights and thoughtful ideas every Sunday. It takes 5 minutes to read, and it’s completely free. Learn more and sign up at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠fs.blog/newsletter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠------

Follow Shane Parrish:X: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://x.com/shaneparrish

Insta: https://www.instagram.com/farnamstreet/

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/shane-parrish-050a2183/

------

Thank you to the sponsors for this episode:

Basecamp: Stop struggling, start making progress. Get somewhere with Basecamp. Sign up free at http://basecamp.com/knowledgeproject

reMarkable: Get your paper tablet at https://www.reMarkable.com today
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

7 Principles of Inner Excellence to Stay Calm Under Fire | Jim Murphy

Charlie Munger spent his life studying one question: why do smart people make bad decisions?

In his legendary talk The Psychology of Human Misjudgement, Munger outlined 25 psychological tendencies that quietly distort how we think.

From incentives and social proof to denial, envy, and authority bias, you’ll learn how these hidden tendencies shape behavior and how to build the mental defenses that helped Munger create one of the best decision records in history.

You’ll hear practical examples, powerful antidotes, and lessons you can apply to business, investing, and everyday life.

-----

Chapters:
(00:00) Introduction:
(01:38) Pattern #1: Reward and Punishment Superresponse Tendency
(05:00) Pattern #2: Liking/Loving Tendency
(08:38) Pattern #3: Disliking/Hating Tendency
(11:48) Pattern #4: Doubt-Avoidance Tendency
(14:19) Pattern #5: Inconsistency-Avoidance Tendency
(20:08) Pattern #6: Curiosity Tendency
(21:30) Pattern #7: Kantian Fairness Tendency
(23:32) Pattern #8: Envy/Jealousy Tendency
(27:32) Pattern #9: Reciprocation Tendency
(31:52) Pattern #10: Influence-from-Mere-Association Tendency
(35:43) Pattern #11: Simple, Pain-Avoiding Psychological Denial
(37:53) Pattern #12: Excessive Self-Regard Tendency
(41:06) Pattern #13: Overoptimism Tendency
(42:11) Pattern #14: Deprival-Superreaction Tendency
(45:28) Pattern #15: Social-Proof Tendency
(48:56) Pattern #16: Contrast-Misreaction Tendency
(51:33) Pattern #17: Stress-Influence Tendency
(54:20) Pattern #18: Availability-Misweighing Tendency
(54:54) Pattern #19: Use-It-or-Lose-It Tendency
(56:26) Pattern #20: Drug-Misinfluence Tendency
(57:23) Pattern #21: Senescence-Misinfluence Tendency
(58:42) Pattern #22: Authority-Misinfluence Tendency
(01:01:58) Pattern #23: Twaddle Tendency
(01:04:18) Pattern #24: Reason-Respecting Tendency
(01:06:42) Pattern #25: Lollapalooza Tendency
(01:10:28) Epilogue

-----

I published the full updated version on fs.blog with his permission, we are the only website to my knowledge that had his personal permission to post it.

-----

Upgrade: Get hand-edited transcripts and an ad-free experience, and so much more. Learn more @ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠fs.blog/membership⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

------

Newsletter: The Brain Food newsletter delivers actionable insights and thoughtful ideas every Sunday. It takes 5 minutes to read, and it’s completely free. See what you're missing: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠fs.blog/newsletter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

------

Follow Shane Parrish

X ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@ShaneAParrish⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Insta ⁠@farnamstreet⁠

LinkedIn ⁠Shane Parrish

------

This episode is for informational purposes only.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Charlie Munger: The Psychology of Human Misjudgment [Outliers]

Restauranteur Ron Shaich reveals how he built the fast casual industry, scale a business, and spot the trends before they happen. 

Ron Shaich is an entrepreneur and investor. He was the founder and former CEO of Panera Bread and Au Bon Pain, generating 25% annualized returns and helping define the fast casual restaurant segment. Now he's the chairman of CAVA (NYSE: CAVA). He is the author of Know What Matters.

He explains

- The origins of Au Bon Pain and Panera

- What you should focus on and what you should avoid

- What most people get wrong about growing a business

- Why the best always seek out the details

- How to use your obsession to your advantage

-----

Upgrade: Get a hand edited transcripts and ad free experiences along with my thoughts and reflections at the end of every conversation. Learn more @ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠fs.blog/membership⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠------Newsletter: The Brain Food newsletter delivers actionable insights and thoughtful ideas every Sunday. It takes 5 minutes to read, and it’s completely free. Learn more and sign up at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠fs.blog/newsletter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠------

Follow Shane Parrish:X: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://x.com/shaneparrish

Insta: https://www.instagram.com/farnamstreet/

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/shane-parrish-050a2183/

Thank you to the sponsors for this episode:

reMarkable: Get your paper tablet at https://www.reMarkable.com today

.tech domains: Nothing says tech like being on .tech https://get.tech/

Shopify: https://shopify.com/knowledgeproject
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Panera Founder Ron Shaich

Steve Wozniak is the engineer who built Apple. 

Then he did something Silicon Valley still doesn't understand: he gave millions of his own money away to early employees, walked away from power, and refused to play the game everyone else was playing.

While HP rejected his design and competitors built walled gardens, Wozniak's philosophy of open architecture, the very one a young Steve Jobs fought against, is what saved Apple long enough for it to become Apple.

This is the story of the reluctant founder who won by refusing to compromise, and a blueprint for success without selling your soul.

-----

Chapters:

(00:00) Introduction 

(01:31) Part 1: Pranks and Paper Computers 

(18:11) Part 2: The First Personal Computer 

(30:46) Part 3: Apple Computer Corporation 

(41:02) Part 4: Apple's Decline 

(46:02) Epilogue 

(48:02) Rules To Live By

-----

Upgrade: Get hand-edited transcripts and an ad-free experience, and so much more. Learn more @ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠fs.blog/membership⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

------

Newsletter: The Brain Food newsletter delivers actionable insights and thoughtful ideas every Sunday. It takes 5 minutes to read, and it’s completely free. See what you're missing: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠fs.blog/newsletter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

------

Follow Shane Parrish

X ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@ShaneAParrish⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Insta ⁠@farnamstreet⁠

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------

This episode is for informational purposes only.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Steve Wozniak: The Engineer Who Built Apple [Outliers]

Anthony Scilipoti is one of the sharpest minds in investing. He's the President and CEO of Veritas Group of Companies.

He called the collapses of both Valeant Pharmaceuticals and Nortel before they happened, and now he has some thoughts on AI.

We talk about asking better questions, reading the fine print, the role of short selling, and what it means to be wrong. We explore why AI gives you information but not insight, why cheap risk is often the most expensive, and why nothing matters until it does.

It's a conversation about the difference between seeing and understanding and the discipline to notice what everyone else ignores.

This episode is not investment advice.

It’s time to listen and learn.

-----

About Anthony
Anthony Scilipoti is one of the sharpest minds in investing. He's the President and CEO of Veritas Group of Companies.

-----

Approximate Chapters:

(00:00) Introduction 

(01:26) Early Career 

(02:53) The Enron Scandal 

(05:48) Lessons on Auditing 

(16:12) The AI 'Bubble' and the State of the Market 

(18:46) Ad Break 

(20:50) The AI 'Bubble' and the State of the Market (Cont.) 

(28:12) Parallels Between the Fall of Nortel Networks and the Current AI Economy 

(35:15) Ad Break 

(36:10) Parallels Between the Fall of Nortel Networks and the Current AI Economy (Cont.) 

(39:14) Investing Rules for Better Investments 

(42:14) Red Flags to Look Out for When Investing? 

(45:56) The Rise and Fall of Valeant Pharmaceuticals 

(53:04) Is a Complicated Corporate Structure Bad? 

(55:54) Companies Don't Start Out Being Crooked 

(57:53) Why is EBITDA a Disastrous Measurement? 

(1:00:47) How Should Investors See Stock Options / How to Account for Stock Options 

(1:06:30) What Incentives to Look for in a Company When Investing? 

(1:11:31) The Rise of Index Investing 

(1:15:41) Buybacks and Share Count 

(1:21:21) What Makes Warren Buffett a Unique Investor? 

(1:26:58) The Power of the Retail Investor 

(1:32:30) What Is Success for You?

-----
Thank you to the sponsors for this episode: 

Basecamp: Stop struggling, start making progress. Get somewhere with Basecamp. Sign up free at http://basecamp.com/knowledgeproject

reMarkable: Get your paper tablet at https://www.reMarkable.com today

.tech domains: Nothing says tech like being on .tech https://get.tech/

-----

Upgrade: Get a hand edited transcripts and ad free experiences along with my thoughts and reflections at the end of every conversation. Learn more @ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠fs.blog/membership⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠------Newsletter: The Brain Food newsletter delivers actionable insights and thoughtful ideas every Sunday. It takes 5 minutes to read, and it’s completely free. Learn more and sign up at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠fs.blog/newsletter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠------Follow Shane ParrishX ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@ShaneAParrish⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Insta ⁠@farnamstreet⁠

LinkedIn ⁠Shane Parrish
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Forensic Account Anthony Scilipoti: The Bubble No One is Talking About

The incredible story of Jim Clayton and the counterintuitive strategies he used to build Clayton Homes into a juggernaut. 

When the bank forced him into bankruptcy at 27, they literally seized everything, including his accountant’s calculator.

He started over and rebuilt following an unconventional playbook. He refused bad loans, vertically integrated everything, and played relentless offense during downturns.

While the home industry collapsed in the 1970s, 1990s, and 2000s, Clayton stayed disciplined. Competitors chased growth with loose credit and failed. He survived every downturn and bought their pieces.

When Warren Buffett read his autobiography, he called days later and paid $1.7 billion in cash.

The lesson: discipline beats hype, vertical integration beats vulnerability, and recessions are buying opportunities.

It’s time to listen and learn.

-----

Some of the lessons in this episode:

1. If you have to swallow a frog, don’t look at it too long.

2. Choose not to participate in recessions.

3. Don’t fight the flow.

4. The best legal department is happy customers.

5. Turn your adversary into an advisor.

6. Bad loans are a virus.

7. There is profit in precision.

8. Own the ecosystem.

9. When you’re lost, trust your instruments.

10. Plant seeds, don’t chase the toy.

-----

This episode was made possible by:

Basecamp: https://basecamp.com/knowledgeproject

-----

Upgrade: Get hand-edited transcripts and an ad-free experience, and so much more. Learn more @ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠fs.blog/membership⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

------

Newsletter: The Brain Food newsletter delivers actionable insights and thoughtful ideas every Sunday. It takes 5 minutes to read, and it’s completely free. See what you're missing: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠fs.blog/newsletter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

------

Follow Shane Parrish

X ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@ShaneAParrish⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Insta ⁠@farnamstreet⁠

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------

This episode is for informational purposes only.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Jim Clayton: Turning Competitors’ Mistakes Into $1.7B [Outliers]

Warren Buffett called Tracy Britt Cool his “fireman” due to her reputation at Berkshire Hathaway for turning around struggling businesses. 

Today, Britt Cool is the co-founder of Kanbrick, where she applies her knowledge to the middle market. 

In this episode, you’ll learn how she went from writing a cold letter to Buffett to being sent in to fix struggling Berkshire subsidiaries, how to evaluate real business performance, and how incentives, culture, and structure line up to create lasting success.

* Learn more and get my 31 highlights from this conversation at: https://fs.blog/knowledge-project-podcast/tracy-britt-cool/

-----

Approximate Chapters

00:00 Intro, recent reading, and family life

03:04 Alan Mulally's Turnaround at Ford

04:22 If you're not having fun 4 days out of 5, it's time to move on

05:03 The Pampered Chef Turnaround

07:06 Value Creation is Changing from Investing to Operating

08:38 Why Companies Fail to Adapt

09:23 Upbringing, education, and early career outreach

10:09 Lessons from the Farm

15:48 Writing Letters to CEOs

16:57 Lessons from Warren Buffett

18:25 Ad Break

20:57 Buying Companies at Kanbrick

22:38 The 3 Components of Long-Term Thinking

25:11 Avoiding the Complexity Trap

26:23 Turning Around a Declining Business

28:03 Attracting Talent to a Declining Business

30:29 Matching Structure to Time Horizon

32:00 Growing Margins

33:25 The Process: What to Focus on When Operating a Business

35:10 The Three Buckets of Putting People First

37:00 How to Evaluate Talent

40:16 Avoid These People At All Costs

42:23 Sourcing Deals

43:56 The Five Lenses to Evaluate a Business like Warren Buffett

45:14 How to Evaluate a Moat

49:29 How Quantitative Analysis Misleads

50:25 A Detailed Look at Return on Invested Capital

53:18 What Makes an Attractive Market

54:33 Finding High-Potential Businesses

57:00 The Post Close Playbook

1:02:03 Repeatable Business Systems

1:04:06 Why Copying What Works is Hard

1:06:01 Mistakes in the Past 5 Years

1:10:13 Debt and Leverage

1:12:20 3 Ways to Think about AI

1:15:13 What Most People Get Wrong When Hiring

1:21:12 Businesses to Avoid

1:22:35 What Not to Do

1:24:31 Public vs. Private Company Boards

1:27:04 How Warren Buffett Taught Katharine Graham Business

1:29:28 Each Hire is a Million Dollar Decision

1:31:02 Evaluating Integrity

1:32:36 The One Word That Changes Everything & Keeps People Honest

1:35:52 Principles & Lessons from Business History

1:36:59 Inflation

1:38:46 Quarterly Reporting

1:40:22 Public Company Heroes

1:41:41 Companies & Political Opinions

1:42:46 What is Success for you?

-----

About Tracy

Tracy Britt Cool is the co-founder of Kanbrick and former CEO of Pampered Chef. At Berkshire Hathaway, she worked directly with Warren Buffett as his financial assistant.

-----

This Episode Made Possible By:

Shopify: https://shopify.com/knowledgeproject

reMarkable: https://www.reMarkable.com

-----

Upgrade: Get a hand edited transcripts and ad free experiences along with my thoughts and reflections at the end of every conversation. Learn more @ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠fs.blog/membership⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

------

Newsletter: The Brain Food newsletter delivers actionable insights and thoughtful ideas every Sunday. It takes 5 minutes to read, and it’s completely free. Learn more and sign up at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠fs.blog/newsletter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

------

Follow Shane Parrish

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Tracy Britt Cool: Building Great Businesses

In this episode of the Knowledge Project, I chat with professor and New York Times best-selling author Philip Tetlock about how we can get better at the art and science of predicting the future.
 
 Go Premium: Members get early access, ad-free episodes, hand-edited transcripts, searchable transcripts, member-only episodes, and more. Sign up at: https://fs.blog/membership/
 
 Every Sunday our newsletter shares timeless insights and ideas that you can use at work and home. Add it to your inbox: https://fs.blog/newsletter/
 
 Follow Shane on Twitter at: https://twitter.com/ShaneAParrish

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#6 Philip Tetlock: How to See the Future

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