Summary of Anonymous Hedge Fund Manager's Diary of a Very Bad Year

Please note: This is a companion version & not the original book. Book Preview:

#1 The dollar is weak today, but that doesn’t mean it will be weak forever. Over the long term, currency processes tend to be fairly stable and mean-reverting. The dollar is a First World country with a weak currency.

#2 The author went back and looked at his portfolio, and noticed that any position he had that was euro-bullish and dollar-bearish was going to be reversed, because everyone at the table was already bearish on the dollar. He was able to see when the paradigm was going to shift.

#3 A paradigm shift in finance is what happened with the subprime market and the spillover it has had in other markets. People assumed that because something was rated triple-A, it was money-good, when in reality, that was not the case.

#4 The attractiveness of a trade depends on the historical data used to evaluate it. If you use historical data from a time when people weren’t actively doing the trade, and then suddenly everyone is doing it, the behavior of the trade will be different.

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Rafbók: 24 maj 2022