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Bloomberg


Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway explore the most interesting topics in finance, markets and economics. Join the conversation every Monday and Thursday.


Odd Lots

What changed between 2019 and 2025? Why are interest rates so much higher? Why does it seem virtually unfathomable that the Fed will return to ZIRP anytime soon? Why do investors expect this rate cut cycle to be so shallow? The answer, theoretically, is that the neutral rate of interest has gone up. But what is the neutral rate of interest, and why has it moved? On this episode, we speak with Jamie Rush of Bloomberg Economics and Tom Orlik, the Chief Economist at Bloomberg Economics. They, along with Bloomberg's Stephanie Flanders, are the editors of a new book titled The Price of Money: A Guide to the Past, Present, and Future of the Natural Rate of Interest, in which they attempt to directly identify what the neutral rate of interest actually is. We discuss the big changes over the last several years, including deglobalization, demographics, and datacenters, that are pushing this number higher.
 
Read more:
Trump’s Contradiction: Demanding Steep Rate Cuts for a ‘Booming’ Economy
Fed Set to Drive Global Rate Cuts as Europe Shifts to Pause
 
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Why the Price of Money Surged in the Last 6 Years

Money has been flowing into the AI space, with billions pouring into GPU clusters, data centers, gas turbines, and the infrastructure needed to train and deploy bigger and bigger models. So what comes next? On this episode, we speak with James van Geelen, founder of Citrini Research. We talk to him about his latest field trip to one of OpenAI's new massive Stargate data centers in Abilene, Texas. We also discuss the increasingly complicated financing arrangements that are funding some of these mega projects and the energy needed to power them. Finally, we ask the question which everyone seems to be asking right now: is AI in a bubble?
 
Read more:
OpenAI Valuation Reaches $500 Billion, Topping Musk’s SpaceX
FOMO Builds as Alibaba Extends $250 Billion AI-Fueled Comeback
 
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James van Geelen on the Next Phase of the AI Buildout

We're used to talking about the Federal Reserve changing "benchmark interest rates." But the mechanics of how the central bank actually tightens or loosens policy are a lot more nuanced. For years now, the Fed's been doing this through the federal funds market — where US banks lend and borrow their excess reserves. But that could be changing. Last week, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan argued that the fed funds target is outdated, and the central bank should be looking at alternatives. So what would those alternatives actually look like, and why do the intricacies of these short-term funding markets actually matter? We speak with Joe Abate, head of macrostrategy, at SMBC Nikko about this and the broader liquidity picture.
 
Read More: Logan Ushers in New Era of Debate on Fed’s Key Policy Tool 
 
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Lots More with Joe Abate on the Fed's New Target and the Rising Price of Money

CME Group is one of the oldest exchanges around, tracing it's history all the way back to the late 1800s, when it specialized in agricultural commodities. It's best known for things like futures and interest rate swaps that tend to be favored by professional traders. But as retail trading becomes big business, the CME is expanding its footprint in the space, including a recently-announced partnership with sports-betting platform FanDuel. So how does a marketplace that built its reputation on professional hedging and risk management now try to capture the attention of everyday investors? In this episode we speak with Terry Duffy, CME Group chairman and CEO, about the exchange’s push into retail, new competition in the Treasury futures space, and much more.

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Terry Duffy on the CME's Big Push into Retail Trading

For over 20 years, people have been talking about prediction markets or event markets are the next big thing. But mostly, with some niche exceptions, they haven't taken off, in part due to regulatory constraints. But now they seem to be booming, and the regulatory environment has gotten much more friendly. On this live episode recorded in Chicago, we speak with Tarek Mansour, the co-founder and CEO of Kalshi, one of the prediction market platforms that's booming. One reason it's doing so well is because it's gone big into sports, which of course gets into its own regulatory thicket. In this conversation, we talk about the future of these markets, the prospect for markets other than sports and presidential elections, and Kalshi's overall plan to let its users to eventually trade everything.

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Tarek Mansour on Kalshi's Plan to Create Markets in Everything

Don Wilson has built a career diving into some of trading’s thorniest problems, including figuring out ways to trade new and niche markets. Now, the founder and CEO of DRW has his sights set on the GPUs powering AI, which he thinks could end up being a bigger market than crude oil. In this episode, which was recorded live onstage at our show in Chicago, we talk about how such a market would work, including ways to ‘standardize’ the vast array of different types of semiconductors, and how this could change the capital stack of the industry. We also talk the evolution of trading over Don’s storied career and why he thinks most assets (and maybe even all of them) will be tokenized within the next five years.
 
Read more:
ASM International Cuts Outlook After Chip Demand Disappoints
Taiwan Pauses South African Chip Export Curbs After Two Days
 
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The King of Chicago Trading Wants to Build a GPU Market Bigger Than Oil

Kindbody, one of the largest fertility companies in the US, sought to disrupt egg freezing and IVF by combining spa vibes with Silicon Valley efficiency. The startup raised millions, opened dozens of clinics, and became a billion-dollar unicorn. But its ambition came with consequences. In IVF Disrupted: The Kindbody Story, reporter Jackie Davalos takes listeners beyond Kindbody’s millennial-friendly waiting rooms and into the clinics themselves, showing the sometimes-heartbreaking consequences of bringing the “move fast and break things” mentality to the business of creating life.

Visit Bloomberg.com/ivfdistrupted to learn more.

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Introducing IVF Disrupted: The Kindbody Story

We know that the top-tier AI labs are spending unbelievable amounts of money on talent. But what are these researchers actually working on? And how do we know that they're making progress? And furthermore, how can we even measure that progress? On this episode, we speak with Jack Morris, an AI researcher and Ph.D. candidate at Cornell University, who is also a part-time researcher at Meta. We talk about what he does, and why breakthroughs seem to be lumpy and unpredictable. We also talk about the battle between open- and closed-source approaches, US vs. Chinese labs, and how an individual talent thinks about where they want to spend their time, balancing the desire for research and prestige with a big fat paycheck.

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Jack Morris on Finding the Next Big AI Breakthrough

There are two huge winning trades that people are looking at day after day. Gold keeps going up and US tech stocks keep going up. But what is driving this intense flow? How long can these consensus trades last? On this episode, we speak with Ozan Tarman, the Vice Chair of Global Macro at Deutsche Bank. As part of his role at the bank, Ozan talks non-stop with hedge funders, sovereign wealth fund managers, and, of course, the analysts at his own bank. This means he has an excellent perspective on why these trades are so popular now. He explains why there is a decline in confidence about the US sovereign (hence the rise in gold) around the world, but also an incredible fixation on the success of the big US tech companies (hence their constant bid). We also talk about other popular consensus trades, from steepeners to Chinese equities to Liz Truss moments all around the world.c
 
Read more:
China Courts Foreign Gold Reserves to Boost Global Clout
Nvidia’s OpenAI Deal Fuels ‘Circular’ Financing Concerns
 
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Ozan Tarman on What's Driving The Nonstop Rise in Gold and Tech

In recent years, retail trading of stocks has absolutely exploded. This is happening despite the fact that investors are subject to a constant stream of propaganda that individuals can't beat the market, and that the proper way to invest is through low-cost index funds that you don't pay regular attention to. More than anyone else, one man has been banging the drum (literally) for years that individuals can beat the market and are smart enough to select individual securities. That, of course, is Jim Cramer, the host of the popular TV show Mad Money on CNBC. He is also the author of the new book, How to Make Money in Any Market. We discuss his philosophy of investing, his career, his time as a young college-age radical, the time he lead a wildcat strike and got fired, his thoughts on memestock mania, and much more.
 
Read more:
US Stocks Advance to Records to Close Out Risk-On FOMC Week
Intel Soars After Nvidia Makes $5 Billion Investment
 
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Jim Cramer on the Retail Trading Revolution

After a volatile 2018, few people in the market expect calm to return anytime soon. Politics, the Fed, and trade will continue to be major sources of uncertainty. And of course there will be numerous events that nobody is thinking about right now. On this week's episode, host Joe Weisenthal speaks with Bloomberg macro strategist Cameron Crise and cross-asset reporter Luke Kawa about the key things to watch in 2019 if you're in the market.

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This is What Traders Will Be Watching In 2019

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