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Blockworks

A daily analysis of macroeconomics, bitcoin, geopolitics and big picture power shifts, hosted by Nathaniel Whittemore @nlw. The Breakdown is part of Blockworks.

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The Breakdown

Larry Fink makes his most explicit case yet that tokenization is entering its internet-1996 moment, and the rest of Wall Street is suddenly lining up behind him. Today’s episode looks at why this shift matters, how macro liquidity and Fed policy are shaping Bitcoin’s rebound, and why regulators and major exchanges are treating tokenized assets as the next frontier of financial infrastructure.

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Tokenization’s Starting Gun

Today’s episode looks at how the traditional financial and policy apparatus around Bitcoin and crypto is shifting from quiet hostility to reluctant accommodation, and what that means for market psychology at this stage of the drawdown. From MicroStrategy building a $1.44B cash buffer to avoid selling BTC, to Kalshi’s move toward on-chain tokenization, to Congress’ blistering report on Operation Chokepoint 2.0 and the about-face from Vanguard and Bank of America on Bitcoin access, the signs of a changing tide are everywhere.

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The Walls Around Crypto Are Finally Cracking

November just logged Bitcoin’s ugliest performance since 2018, with a seasonally strong month instead turning into a mini crypto winter driven by thin liquidity, excess leverage, and global macro jitters from Japan to the Fed. This episode digs into what really caused the drawdown, whether the pain is flushing out the froth ahead of a healthier 2026, and how to think about the latest macro correlations—plus a fresh round of Tether FUD, new clarity from MicroStrategy on what would actually make them sell, and a mysterious Bitcoin move from SpaceX.

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Bitcoin’s Worst November in Years

Bitcoin is climbing back from Friday’s drop, but the bounce looks weak and uncertain. Liquidity is shallow, flows are scattered, and the futures market just saw one of its sharpest resets of the cycle. Analysts say consolidation is more likely than a clean reversal, even as rate-cut odds rise and long-term holders accumulate. Institutional sentiment is mixed, CME derivatives are hitting records, and ETF flows remain soft, leaving a market that feels steadier than last week but far from confident the bottom is truly in.

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Bitcoin’s Fragile Recovery

Bitcoin steadied after a brutal week that saw cascading liquidations, battered ETFs, and growing questions about whether the drawdown was macro-driven rather than crypto-specific. Analysts are watching for early bottom signals as funding rates flip negative, long-term buyers nibble, and headline flows finally stabilize. But the bigger story is the macro backdrop: AI stocks sliding, liquidity tightening, Fed speakers clashing, and the White House sending Scott Besson on another weekend media blitz—capped off by his appearance at the PUBKey DC opening. With recession debates heating up, fiscal impulses looming, and rate-cut odds abruptly snapping back, today’s episode dives into why the narrative tug-of-war matters more than any single price tick.

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Scott Besson Walks Into a Bitcoin Bar

NLW and Scott Melker cover why this may be the first baby bear market in our new tradfi integrated paradigm.

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The Five Most Important Stories This Week

The latest Fed minutes show a deeply divided committee but a clear signal: no December rate cut is coming. Markets reacted fast, sending Bitcoin tumbling to new lows as leveraged traders piled in and ETF investors pulled out. NLW unpacks what the minutes reveal about the economy, why rate expectations are shifting, and how this is shaping crypto’s end-of-year outlook—including Kraken’s IPO filing and a major Bitcoin bet from Abu Dhabi.

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[CORRECT] Fed Minutes Slam the Door on Rate Cuts—Bitcoin Hits New Lows

Fed Minutes Slam the Door on Rate Cuts—Bitcoin Hits New Lows

Bitcoin’s brutal drawdown has traders asking whether the market finally found its bottom, with price testing $90K multiple times, sentiment crushed into extreme fear, ETF flows bleeding out, futures slipping into backwardation, and institutions stepping back; in today’s episode NLW breaks down the case for and against a bottom through technicals, macro shifts, leveraged positioning, while also covering Kraken’s $800M fundraise with Citadel involvement, Tether’s strategic investment in Ledn, new OCC guidance allowing banks to hold crypto for gas fees, and the first slate of Solana ETFs launching into choppy markets.

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Bitcoin’s Bottom Watch Begins

A look at why the long-awaited return of ICOs to the US started with a whimper, not a bang. The debut sale on Coinbase’s new platform underperformed expectations, raising questions about demand for new L1s, tokenomics, and whether retail ever really came back this cycle. Plus, microstrategy’s latest massive Bitcoin buy, trouble in its preferred stock, CBOE’s move into regulated perps, and a grim turn for BTC price action.

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Why Coinbase’s First ICO Fell Flat

NLW explores macro turmoil, including the growing (at least in analysts' estimation) possibility of a recession. He also looks at how it's impacting the crypto markets.

Sponsored by: 

Ledger
Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security, proudly sponsors The Breakdown podcast. Celebrating 10 years of protecting over 20% of the world’s crypto, Ledger ensures the security of your assets. For the best self-custody solution in the space, buy a LEDGER™ device and secure your crypto today. Buy now on Ledger.com.

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Markets Get Spooked By Recession Possibility

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