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Cato Institute

Power Problems is a bi-weekly podcast from the Cato Institute. Host John Glaser offers a skeptical take on U.S. foreign policy, and discusses today’s big questions in international security with distinguished guests from across the political spectrum. Podcast Hashtag: #FPPowerProblems.
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Power Problems

Dartmouth College's Daryl Press and George Washington University's Nicholas Anderson discuss their modeling of an outbreak of war on the Korean Peninsula, assess the balance of power between the North and South, and explore the implications for the US military alliance with South Korea.

Show Notes

 • Nicolas Anderson, Daryl Press, “
Lost Seoul: Assessing Pyongyang’s Other Deterrent • ,” 
Texas National Security Review • Vol 8 Issue 3, Summer 2025.

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Modeling War on the Korean Peninsula

Alexander Wendt, political scientist at Ohio State University, discusses his forthcoming book The Last Humans: UFOs & National Security, on the political and national security consequences of discovering that Unidentified Aerial Phenomena (UAPs) are piloted by intelligent extra-terrestrial life. He argues that the ontological shock from this discovery risks triggering a civilizational “auto-immune reaction” of widespread disorder that could undermine the international state system and suggests possible policies and pathways to responsibly prepare for this scenario.

Show Notes

Alexander Wendt, The Last Humans: UFOs and National Security (forthcoming from Oxford University Press)

Alexander Wendt, Raymond Duvall, “Sovereignty and the UFO,” Political Theory, 36(4), 607-633.

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UFOs, Aliens, & National Security

The Stimson Center’s Christopher Preble and Geoff Wilson argue that nuclear weapons modernization programs are wasteful boondoggles that undermine deterrence and stability while serving as a give-away to parochial interests. They discuss a “deterrence first” posture on nuclear weapons, perverse incentives in the bureaucracy, profligate waste and inefficiency, the risks of nuclear escalation, the consequences of eroding nuclear deterrence, and threat inflation on China, among other issues. 

Show Notes

 • Geoff Wilson, Christopher Preble, Lucas Ruiz, “
Gambling on Armageddon: How US Nuclear Policies are Undercutting Deterrence and Lowering the Threshold for Nuclear War • ,” Stimson Center Report, February 19, 2025.

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Why America Needs to Change Its Nuclear Weapons Posture

Sam Bresnick, Research Fellow at Georgetown University’s Center for Security and Emerging Technology, discusses artificial intelligence in the context of the US-China relationship. He explains how AI will be used by states in coming years and compares different obstacles and advantages that both the US and China have in their competition to develop AI and its various applications. Among other topics, he also discusses diplomatic pathways for the US and China to avoid dangerous AI scenarios. 

Show Notes

Sam Bresnick, “The Obstacles to China’s AI Power,” Foreign Affairs, December 31, 2024

Sam Bresnick, et al., “Which Ties Will Bind?” CSET Issue Brief, February 2024

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The AI Competition with China

Anatol Lieven, Director of the Eurasia Program at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, discusses how the international politics of the Ukraine war have changed since Trump’s election win, how to move towards negotiations to end the war, and the various issues - from territory to NATO membership - to be resolved in any peace deal. 

Show Notes

Anatol Lieven, “Three Conditions for a US-Backed Peace Agreement in Ukraine,” UnHerd, November 30, 2024.

Anatol Lieven, George Beebe, “The Diplomatic Path to a Secure Ukraine,” Quincy Paper #13, February 16, 2024.

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Negotiating Peace in Ukraine

Scott Lincicome, vice president of general economics at the Cato Institute, discusses America’s new regime of high protective tariffs under the Trump and Biden administrations and assesses what may be to come on trade policy under a future Trump or Harris administration. He discusses the overly expansive authorities presidents have to impose tariffs, the weakness of commonly employed national security justifications for them, and the economics of why tariffs fail, among other topics.

Show Notes

 • Clark Packard and Scott Lincicome, "
Presidential Tariff Powers and the Need for Reform • ," Cato Institute Briefing Paper No. 179, October 9, 2024
 • Scott Lincicome, "
Six-Plus Years of Incoherent, Ineffective China Policy • ," 
The Dispatch • , October 2, 2024

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The Trouble with Tariffs and the Future of Trade

Daniel DePetris and Jennifer Kavanagh of Defense Priorities discuss the latest iteration of the Axis of Evil threat, this time in reference to China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran, and argue their relationship is misconstrued and overhyped. They discuss threat inflation, the relationship dynamics among these four powers, including China and Russia’s relationship and how US posture has pushed them together, the state of the Russia-Ukraine war, China’s role in the Middle East, the problem of prioritizing threats and interests under primacy, and how to constructively think about core US national interests, among other issues.

Show Notes

 • Daniel DePetris and Jennifer Kavanagh, “
The ‘Axis of Evil’ is Overhyped • ,” Foreign Policy, August 14, 2024.

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Not Another Axis of Evil

The Stimson Center’s Senior Fellow Dan Grazier and Research Associate Julia Gledhill analyze U.S. defense spending and explain how the Pentagon is creating “a budgetary time bomb set to explode in the next twenty years.” They discuss several examples of failed over-budget weapons acquisition programs and warn that future such fiascos are now in the making, with unsustainable budgetary implications, unless crucial reforms to U.S. defense and foreign policy are made. 

Show Notes

Dan Grazier, Julia Gledhill, Geoff Wilson, “Current Defense Plans Require Unsustainable Future Spending”, Stimson Center Issue Brief, July 16, 2024.

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The Pentagon’s Budgetary Time Bomb

Renanah Joyce, Assistant Professor at Georgetown University, and Brian Blankenship, Assistant Professor at the University of Miami, explain how great power competition for foreign military bases in third-party host countries increases the costs of securing access. They discuss the strategy behind US forward basing over time, expansion into Africa in recent years, different ways of providing compensation to host countries, increasing competition for host country access, the lack of transparency on US overseas presence, and the strategic utility (or lack thereof) of overseas basing. 

Show Notes:

 • Renanah Miles Joyce & Brian Blankenship (2024) “
The Market for Foreign Bases • ,” 
Security Studies • , 33(2), 194-223.

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The Rising Costs of Overseas Military Bases

Emma Ashford, senior fellow at the Stimson Center, discusses recent escalations in the Ukraine war, the costs to the United States and European partners of supporting Kyiv, the effect of the conflict on Russia’s economy, the problems with Biden’s strategy, why it’s unlikely Ukraine can achieve total victory, the timing of ceasefire diplomacy and peace talks, how early negotiations proved the significance of Ukraine’s neutrality as a core issue of the war, the wayward mission of NATO and the future of the alliance, and why it’s not in US interests to bring Ukraine into NATO, among other issues.

Show Notes

 • Emma Ashford, “
Testing Assumptions About the War in Ukraine • ,” Stimson Center Policy Memo, May 23, 2024
 • Emma Ashford, Joshua Shifrinson, Stephen Wertheim, “
What Does America Want in Ukraine • ,” Foreign Policy, May 8, 2024

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Ukraine, NATO, and the End of the War

Today we talk about Trump’s new Afghanistan strategy with Sameer Lalwani. Is there anything new here?

Show notes:

 • Guest Bio: 
Sameer LalwaniTrump’s Televised Speech on Afghanistan Strategy

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Same Strategy, Different Day

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